NOC Bard's College Mafia - Day Three

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doing a quick run-down of where people stand for me right now to straighten my thoughts and make it easier to visualize, I won't really go into a lot of depth explaining them as it's based on everything so far so sorry for that ahead of time
Former Hope: Town-leaning, I liked their meta analyzation at the start of the game and their posting has been looking fine up until now.
MeowMIXXX: Scum read based off of gut when he was posting, him not posting yesterday doesn't help that
bluedoom: Neutral read, would have to check his posts over again
MoodyCloud: See above
Texas Cloverleaf: All signs are pointing to town, cleared by Haruno, pushed onto by mafia, seemed townie in the argument with Jalmont, etc.
Champ1604: Town, as was declared by the mod.
Hitmonleet: Town, their claim seemed valid and I liked their posts yesterday and I think the day before that.
XnadrojX: Scum read based off of what I can recall, partially gut
Haruno: Seems like town, I don't see them lying about having a cop shot.
Earlio: Slight town read based on gut feel from previous posts.
BLOODYRAIN10001: cult leader Town, my special ability allows to see my own role, you can trust me on this read.
Aura Guardian: Town, cleared because of his friendly neighbor.
Prophylaxis: I've been reading Proph as heavy town all game based on his activity level and the general level of his posts among other things.
Metal Sonic: I was reading him heavy scum at first but he cleared up a lot for me yesterday and the end of the day before that, currently town-leaning.
I could've sworn he was alive last I checked
Overall:
TOWN: BLOODYRAIN10001, Champ, Proph, Aura Guardian, Texas, Hitmonleet
PROBABLY TOWN: Haruno
TOWN-LEANING: Metal Sonic, Earlio
NULL: bluedoom, Moodycloud
SCUM-LEANING: MeowMIXXX, XnadrojX
 
Distant thought: what if we're very wrong and about to do multiple mislynches in a row? Just something mafia might want us to do to ourselves, like mxmts.

Just a distant thought though; I still like a meow lynch right now.
 
KnightsofCydonia
mxmts

Granny Pie
Jalmont


Prophylaxis
Champ1604
Metal Sonic r. shubaka17
Former Hope
MeowMIXX
bluedoom
MoodyCloud
Texas Cloverleaf
Hitmonleet
XnadrojX
Haruno
Earlio
BLOODYRAIN1001
Aura Guardian

Asek r. ItzViper482
Thetwinmasters r. Tonithetourguide


Confirmed flips so far.

I'm town.

Champ is confirmed town.

--

KnightsofCydonia
mxmts

Granny Pie
Jalmont


Prophylaxis
Champ1604
Metal Sonic r. shubaka17
Former Hope
MeowMIXX
bluedoom
MoodyCloud
Texas Cloverleaf
Hitmonleet
XnadrojX
Haruno
Earlio
BLOODYRAIN1001
Aura Guardian

Asek r. ItzViper482
Thetwinmasters r. Tonithetourguide


Texas Cloverleaf is close to confirmed town for a variety of reasons: His active gamesolving throughout the entire game, the cop check on him when we already have a godfather one-shot, and [REDACTED].

Aura Guardian is also close to confirmed town because of the Friendly Neighbor shot when Jalmont was killed. I'm tinfoiling Aura Guardian having an ability similar to mxmts's and used it on Jalmont, but given that Jalmont basically did not answer my question regarding that then I'm fine clearing him because Jalmont was town.

--

KnightsofCydonia
mxmts

Granny Pie
Jalmont


Prophylaxis
Champ1604
Texas Cloverleaf
Aura Guardian

Metal Sonic r. shubaka17
Former Hope
MeowMIXX
bluedoom
MoodyCloud
Hitmonleet
XnadrojX
Haruno
Earlio
BLOODYRAIN1001

Asek r. ItzViper482
Thetwinmasters r. Tonithetourguide


Three scum, ten names.

Former Hope is also pretty likely to be town because [REDACTED] and that theory on the toni slot. Honestly I'm still kind of tinfoiling them because that theory was very accurate, but he had an opportunity to push Hitmonleet on Day 2 but he ended up pushing Thetwinmasters with me hard instead. Like, probably re-examine him if we've mislynched several Days in a row since he hasn't posted anything too memorable then, but he's good in my book as of right now. Also, Asek tried to shade them.

The scum all collectively decided to push Hitmonleet. Judging by Asek's play it feels a lot like he was trying to grasp for any mislynch he could have moreso than bussing. Also Thetwinmasters heavily pushed on him. Plus, he poisoned GP when he could have easily poisoned me Night 1 while being pretty genuine in his posts.

--

KnightsofCydonia
mxmts

Granny Pie
Jalmont


Prophylaxis
Champ1604
Texas Cloverleaf
Aura Guardian

Former Hope
Hitmonleet
Metal Sonic r. shubaka17
MeowMIXX
bluedoom
MoodyCloud
XnadrojX
Haruno
Earlio
BLOODYRAIN1001

Asek r. ItzViper482
Thetwinmasters r. Tonithetourguide


Three scum, eight names this time. I like these odds.

Haruno has been doing basically nothing this entire game, but has had a cop investigation on Texas and I assume the scum targeted him with an ability that nullifies his abilities. It could be that they did it to one of their own scum players but a one-shot cop ability makes a lot of sense in this setup, and the narrative that Haruno copped a player then scum are trying to shut him down in fear of Haruno being an investigative JoaT or something is a lot more plausible than the world where Haruno is scum, faked a cop check, and then his scum team decides to publicly roleblock him. I think he's town, but in the event we miss a couple times, we are absolutely lynching him before lylo though.

Metal Sonic.. maybe he's ballsy enough to heavily defend Thetwinmasters as scum, but part of me doesn't think so. Him going "f5 f5" shows legit curiosity for the flip and he was a counterwagon to Thetwinmasters. Other than his EoD2 fiasco, he's been.. kind of coasting to be honest? I'd need to re-look at all of his posts but as of right now I've mostly been assuming that he's not a ballsy scum player to act the way that he did EoD2. Maybe I'm wrong?

Metal Sonic - if you could give me your last completed scum/town games that'd be great.

--

KnightsofCydonia
mxmts

Granny Pie
Jalmont


Prophylaxis
Champ1604
Texas Cloverleaf
Aura Guardian

Former Hope
Hitmonleet
Haruno
Metal Sonic r. shubaka17
MeowMIXX
bluedoom
MoodyCloud
XnadrojX
Earlio
BLOODYRAIN1001

Asek r. ItzViper482
Thetwinmasters r. Tonithetourguide


Basically the PoE right now as I see it. If there was three scum in this group of six, that'd be nice, but part of me doesn't think that's going to be the case.

I feel the best about Bloody, mostly because he's been the only one to provide meaty posts despite not having many real time interactions. Asek was also heavily against him when he was in the thread; he said that Bloody's posts are hedgy and pushed him repeatedly. It wouldn't surprise me that he was trying to gun for the lower hanging fruit mislynches, which were Hitmonleet and Bloody.

--

KnightsofCydonia
mxmts

Granny Pie
Jalmont


Prophylaxis
Champ1604
Texas Cloverleaf
Aura Guardian

Former Hope
Hitmonleet
Haruno
Metal Sonic r. shubaka17
BLOODYRAIN1001

MeowMIXX
bluedoom
MoodyCloud
XnadrojX
Earlio

Asek r. ItzViper482
Thetwinmasters r. Tonithetourguide


Basically the PoE right now, vig/lynch through them and we'll get some scum out of it.

The way that Asek treated Xnadroj felt strongly like it was a s/s interaction - he repeatedly said that Xnadroj was inactive but never actually called for his head. And someone (I think Aura Guardian) stated that scum often like to put two town/one scum in their reads list and I think Xnadroj was that scum - Asek was scumreading Xnadroj, yes, but he preferred townies (Bloody and Hitmonleet) over them. That, plus Xnadroj not really posting anything of importance/coasting through the game makes me think he's scum.

bluedoom is probably the most likely town out of the lot given that he had a pretty decent Day 1 and has been mostly coasting these past couple of Days, but because of said coasting I don't have much that realistically clears him here. The stuff from Day 1 feels like it might have been to get a mislynch on Champ? There are some townie tonal stuff that I see from his posts but much of his alignment depends on how xNadroj flips.

MeowMIXX has all but vanished Day 3 after having some good townie tone on Days 1 and 2. I was townreading him when he was here but him vanishing for Day 3 is not a good look for him, as I've mentioned before. Fine with him dying. Just not.. 100% right now at the moment/

Can definitely see MoodyCloud as scum given that he voted Hitmonleet and does.. really not have much clearing him at all. PoE lynch/vig yeah.

Earlio. I didn't like the "Let's get the D1 Earlio wagon going" because it felt very self-conscious. Not a big fan of how he was like "I'm going to vote Haruno because you're always like this". Then he townreads AG and MS (probably knowing that they're both town?) I don't know, most of his opinions feel like my own opinions and he's been kind of riding on the coast (like, not really questioning others or scumhunting, just stating his own reads). Can die.

KnightsofCydonia
mxmts

Granny Pie
Jalmont


Prophylaxis
Champ1604
Texas Cloverleaf
Aura Guardian

Former Hope
Hitmonleet
Haruno
Metal Sonic r. shubaka17
BLOODYRAIN1001


bluedoom
MeowMIXX
MoodyCloud
XnadrojX
Earlio

Asek r. ItzViper482
Thetwinmasters r. Tonithetourguide


Blast through the PoE and we should get more scum bodies.
 
As per my previous posts, I disagree with your bluedoom/xnadrojx analysis (I think they should be swapped), but I see your point. At this point, though, I'd rather lynch another of that PoE first.
 
Yeah agreed. Basically, it doesn't really matter how we handle the PoE as long as we lynch/vig through it.

I know there's town in it but they literally are not making the effort to town it up aside from maybe bluedoom.

If you DON'T POST OR SOLVE how am I supposed to townread you, you know?
 
Only way we realistically get screwed here is if all five players in the PoE are town, in which... someone is certainly pocketing me somewhere.

But given how 4 out of 5 of them have basically given up on the game I really don't think that's the case.
 
I'll be absolutely honest guys, I've been running out of time to juggle this and everything else in life, so I'll likely end up subbing out soon (well, as soon as we end up getting the 5 or so subs we need atm). I'll be around, but I won't exactly be able to do much analysis or discussion, so just ping me if you all have any thoughts or questions you'd like to ask me/have me look at/etc.

Sorry about this.
 

Texas Cloverleaf

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Fmpov proph's Poe is a good summation of current consensus and I'm happy killing off everyone in it until there's no longer a Poe

Maybe one day someone will care that they're going to die
 
This is the deadest mafia game I've been in for some time heh.

bluedoom: If you're town here, then you need to put in effort to make sure that you're not part of that PoE. Can you point to some specific posts that make you not aligned with the mafia? Or things that you think you've done that make you town?
 
I can answer this one.
Scum!me doesn't come on at D2 deadline and immediately vote my buddy while making the counterwagon's claim look legit town, unless I'm aiming to deepwolf here. Also jalmont kill wouldn't come from scum!me because I was scumreading Jalmont D3 so that's like taking away one of my few contributions. Plus, I expected scum to kill leet here since he did claim to have a doc shot.
 
OK, I'm glad that you're actually here and talking.

What do you think of my PoE post? Is there anyone that you think should be cleared from suspicion in the PoE/someone who you think is scum but I have ranked higher in my PoE?

It's really hard to find discussion topics about possible scum given that Xnadroj/Meow/Moody are literally NOT POSTING.
 
Read Asek's posts and see how he treats Bloody.

It feels like Asek is trying to set up potential mislynches on Bloody/Hitmonleet rather than bussing, especially when you contrast how Asek treats Xnadroj.
 
Right, I read it and I agree, I think compared to XX this is some pretty harsh treatment, yeah he's probably town.

I would put Hitmonleet above Former Hope in your list, and everyone below leet has a decent chance of being scum, mostly because everyone after leet have done one thing and then coasted so its hard to say.

Do you think there's a good argument for MS-TTM being scum-scum wagons? It didn't feel like that but the TTM wagon was a reaction to the MS wagon.
 
I can't think of a reason to clear the not-me PoE players and it definitely does feel like scum has to be among them; I think XX is still the best lynch today because he pushes the scum counterwagon without a good explanation + interactions with Asek.
 
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