Official NBA 15-16' Season Thread

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Dellavedova to sell 1mill jerseys midway through this series. Then cramp up, dehydrate, and exhaust himself into submission.
 
Being a Heat fan as stated previously in this thread, I'm pretty neutral here. I'm just going to enjoy a good series here and hope Cleveland doesn't attempt a shootout with the Warriors or else that pretty much determines their fate and will lead to blowout wins for the Warriors, I want a close chippy af series. Everyone is picking Golden State though and I completely get that but we can't have the entire smogon forum pro GSW.

I'll reluctantly go with Cleveland in 6, yes 6 because if it goes to 7 they're royally fucked in Oracle.
 
(1) Golden State Warriors versus (1) Cleveland Cavaliers

“LeBron is like a coach.” – Tyronn Lue

“When in doubt, shoot it.” – J.R. Smith

“People don't understand that Draymond low key trying out for major league soccer and Adam's training to switch to UFC. They helping each other out” – IamEggFu

“The Warriors were down 3-1 and they turned it around and I think that that’s what we’re going to do, too." – Bernie Sanders

"Kevin durant is fighting through the curse this is a beautiful thing to See" - Lil' B

We now enter yet another rematch of two teams in the finals. The only difference between this year and last would be experience, and two star players on Cleveland’s side.

There’s not much to say this year, so I’m going to keep this short and sweet. It’s kinda hard to predict “rematch” type of series. An injury there, a lucky bounce there, A Lil' B curse there... or an unpredictable chess move there by the coach can easily swing this series in either team’s favor. All I can do is focus on the barometers for both teams.

Golden State’s line-up of death and Kevin Love

Are pretty much the question on everybody’s mind. Oklahoma City pretty much laid out the blueprint in how to defeat Golden State, but that doesn’t mean any team can just implement it and succeed. Not many teams have the same athleticism and length as Oklahoma City dpes. If Cleveland can get Golden State to play outside their style, they will win this series. It’s certainly do-able. They got the rebounding edge to do it (although they’re not as good at rebounding as Oklahoma City).

But, does that answer involve Love? As bad as he is defensively, I’m not so sure. I suppose what is likely to happen here is that LeBron is on Draymond, and Love is on somebody that’s not too dangerous like Barnes. It’s a risk, but having to deal with Curry/Green screen-and-rolls is an even bigger risk.

Love’s effectiveness in this series will be put under a microscope considering he was missing last year thus making him the biggest X-Factor in the series. He has a large share of Cleveland’s most-used line-ups up to this point in the playoffs, so how well Golden State attacks him will decide how long Cleveland can actually stay in this series, because we know without Love, they’re probably finished. There was plenty of talk last year too about how Cleveland missed a player who could both space the floor and beat Golden State on the glass. We will certainly see whether he’s a curse or a blessing this time around.

Oh, but what about Frye? He’s shooting roughly 60% from downtown while being involved in Cleveland’s equally dangerous small offensive line-up. My only concern is that they have to keep the battle of the boards alive. Without Thompson, only LeBron is really expected to grab the boards. As far as which small line-up is expected to shoot better… On paper, that’s easily Cleveland, but don’t let those numbers fool you considering they’ve faced defensively inferior teams. My gut would easily say Golden State. Versatility also goes to Golden State, but LeBron James in space has been one of the most dangerous things we’ve seen since Miami earlier in the decade.

It’ll be interesting to see both of their deadliest line-ups go toe-to-toe and if Cleveland decides, have Love out there major minutes.

Kyrie Irving’s second shot

Will be an additional welcome to the line-up after LeBron’s work last year. I really don’t know what to expect. Last year, I was all down on his defense, but his only show in game 1 was actually a respectable performance against Curry. Admittedly, it’s still a breath of fresh air to guard Irving as opposed to Westbrook, but he’s still a premiere guard. Irving/Love will really, really have to be on their guard this series. I do not doubt his defense once again; I’m simply stating what’s required. We don’t truly know what would have resulted if Irving was never injured. Maybe Golden State would have cruised? Maybe Cleveland would have cruised? Irving is by no means a lockdown defender, so I’m more willing to believe Curry would have actually had an easier time against him versus Dellavedova or Shumpert over the course of a series. Some guys out there are arguing the absence of Irving was actually beneficial last year.

Boards and pace

Will be the same barometers used last year. Getting more possessions than Golden State is tantamount to beating them as shown by Oklahoma City. While Lue has stated time and time again that he wants to increase the “pace” of his team, they actually haven’t. They do not want to in this series, too. You simply will not beat Golden State possession-for-possession. They are too offensively talented.

Cleveland is offensively talented too, but much of their recent success is from efficient three-point shots; not necessarily increased possessions. Golden State’s defense is too good to have Cleveland shoot that well over the course of seven games. Cleveland is actually at their best taking their time, not turning the ball over, and executing better than you. That is a game they can beat Golden State in, and it will heavily involve excellent rebounding.

Basically, the winner of any of these games… will be the team whose style is prominent: Golden State’s freestyling offense or Cleveland’s halfcourt execution.

Intangibles

Aren’t usually a thing I reference but in the case of a finals rematch, I have to. Both teams are very familiar with each other, and one team is coming off of a huge momentum swing after being sucker punched. The other team has somewhat cruised and never really had to seriously adjust their strategy much. Rest versus rust is a lame debate but I also like to think the teams most likely to surprise their opponent early on are usually the ones who’ve already been tested beforehand. Golden State certainly has the mental advantage coming into this but both teams are so familiar with each other at this point that it may be moot. With the same roster and line-ups, continuity does help in the sense that you already know what’s going to work as a coach or a player; rematches have always essentially came down to who can get the surprises first. Home court advantage and continuity can’t hurt, at least.

Overall

We simply have to ask… which players are more likely to underperform compared to last year? Overperform compared to last year? Has Cleveland learned something new with Frye and Love? Has Golden State learned anything new over the course of their 73-win season?

Eh, near impossible questions to answer. I have a slight leaning towards Golden State. Not because I think they’re the better team but they have the leverage. The league overall has yet to adapt to their style of play, and right now, they are the “problem”. The team that will beat them will be called the “solution”. When you’re the team on the side of solution searching, you are automatically the underdog to me.

Because right now at this moment, Cleveland does not know 100% for a fact what will work against this team. There is no team in the NBA at this current moment that can play Golden State’s style and beat them. You can only force them out of their style. With a roster that is mostly the same as last year’s with only a slight change of philosophy… Cleveland runs a much higher risk being in the “not knowing” state of a match-up than Golden State.

Golden State wins if


We’ve seen it all before. Cleveland’s turning the ball, Green is doing a heck of a job on LeBron, Frye, and maybe even Love too. Curry is somewhat “freed” up being guarded by Irving and trying to put Shumpert on him, Thompson is an even bigger nightmare for the guy. LeBron can’t make an outside shot the save his life this year and rebounding has been roughly equal across both teams.
Cleveland wins if

The game is controlled, and the boards are collected. Cleveland is likely shooting lights out. J.R. Smith maybe breaks a shooting record. Frye becomes the most important one-dimensional player in history and Love is finally redeemed.
Golden State in six.
 
Well it was a fun series in theory.

Cavs have no shot.

From 3 pts down to 20 in minutes...

Better bench, shooting, defense, intensity, movement, coach.. It's fucking done.


Damn..
 
Cavaliers are a lot like the Thunder, except not as athletic or long. They tried to post-up Love and iso on switches. They tried to kick-out from double-teams but everything just lead to turnovers or missed shots at the rim. If their star players don't get anything going, neither do their role guys.

Difference between them and Warriors is that neither did the Warriors, but they still won the game through the strength of their bench.
 
Cavs will lose this series. There isn't any doubt now.


Lebron will never win in Cleveland. He's too old to carry his squad now, he will never get what he needs in a supporting cast to win it all. Warriors do everything that any other team does, but 1000 times better.


If only young Lebron was here
 
I changed the channel at half time, just now checked back and wasn't all that surprised how bad things got for Cleveland. I could be here all night explaining what's wrong with this team as well as Lebron. Like I said before, I grew up a Heat and D-wade fan, however my sister has always been just a bron fan and I have her texting me things like she doesn't understand how he allowed his jump shot to become so broken and how he continues to kill his own team with clunky play and turnovers in key games.

Not sure what to tell her but I know I'm done with the series since the end result is painfully obvious, maybe Bron and love shouldn't have taken the contracts they took in order to give them more flexibility with the roster but I guess some people just can't comprehend what made teams like the Spurs as good as they were with their entire roster. Congrats to the warriors though, they're only two wins away from officially running this league with their young dynasty in the making.
 
OKC was clearly the 2nd best team in the league this year. Unfortunately, 2nd best doesn't often win championships.

(Please stay in OKC, KD)
 
Okay, Cavaliers are two games behind, will have three games at home if they keep the home court advantage and will have to do something different to avoid the predictable outcome for everyone (including me) A.K.A Warriors back to back. The right processs would be work on different patterns of attack and defense during the whole season than the same old song and dance which they are accustomed A.K.A. Hero Ball. But they don't have eight months, but only three days, it will not come easy and done from the clippboard. So they will have to improvise.

I would try playing in "small ball" taking away Tristan Thompson from the starting five and playing with LeBron as Center, exploring a possible mismatch with Bogut in early Game Three. Of course, Kerr quickly would change this mismatch and would bench Bogut to Iguodala and work with the Death Lineup with Green defending Bron as Center, which would require too much energy from both players and weaken the both teams attacks (am maybe defense too). In short, I'd bet on LeBron's incredible athleticism and make him play closer to the paint without giving those jawdropping drives that work very well against almost all teams, which is not the case with the Warriors.


I would order Kyrie to make small drives until the FT line for "easy and safe" shots from mid range, an area that has been a little bit explored by the Cavaliers and Westbrook and Durant showed in West Finals which may be a pretty interesting way to score against the Warriors. If the FT line becomes too congested, long drives not aiming the basket, but the baseline in order to explore possible gaps left by the defense trying to close the spaces and throw passes from there to anyone free of the 3 pt line, especially Kevin Love, J.R. Smith and maybe Channing Frye. In short², try to emulate the Miami Heat's Spoelstra attack with LeBron and Wade. The big problem for the Cavs is that Kyrie has neither LeBron and Wade's court vision and pass accuracy. It would be literally a bet on Kyrie to become a classic Point Guard par excellence for these first two games at home.

Okay, we worked on LeBron's, Kyrie's and Kevin Love's roles and they are well defined on attack. Now comes the most important and the most difficult part: put the head of the rest of the team (including reserves) that these are the NBA Finals, they are two games behind and they need to shoot their best shots of their lives and they need to get rid of the defense as if their lives depended on it. This is the most important point and was the reason the Cavs lost their first match besides the mental lapses which LeBron talked about on postgame interview: they were so paranoid about stopping the Splash Bros and have forgotten that there is a very powerful team and system around them.

tl:dr; The solution for Cavs is: don't sleep on D and grind theirs asses with the ball exploring screens and raining threes. It's not easy, but that's the most effective plan by now.


tl:dr; The solution for Cavs is: don't sleep on D and grind theirs asses with the ball exploring screens and raining threes. It's not easy, but that's the most effective plan by now.


PS.: Sorry for my fucking terrible English, huehuebrbr here. If anyone is interested, an equal post in Portuguese.

OK, os Cavaliers estão dois jogos atrás, terão três partidas em casa caso consigam manter o mando de quadra e terão que fazer algo diferente para evitar o resultado previsível por todo mundo (inclusive para mim) que é Warriors bicampeões. O ideal seria trabalhar padrões de defesa e de ataque diferentes durante a temporada toda que não seja o hero ball ao qual eles estão acostumados. Mas como eles não têm oito meses, mas apenas três dias, isso não vai sair tão fácil da prancheta. Sendo assim, terão de improvisar.

Eu tentaria uma formação em "small ball" tirando Tristan Thompson do time titular e LeBron jogando como Center, explorando um possível mismatch com Bogut no início do terceiro jogo. Claro, Kerr rapidamente mudaria tal situação e tiraria Bogut para colocar Iguodala em quadra e jogaria com o Quinteto da Morte com Green defendendo Bron, o que demandaria energia demais de ambos os jogadores e debilitaria os ataques de ambos os times (e talvez as defesas). Resumindo, eu apostaria na incrível capacidade atlética de LeBron e faria-o jogar mais próximo do garrafão, sem precisar dar aqueles drives alucinantes que funcionam muito bem contra quase todos os times, o que não é o caso dos Warriors.

Orientaria Kyrie a fazer pequenos drives até a linha de lance livre para arremessos "seguros e fáceis" de médio alcance, uma área que foi muito pouco explorada pelos Cavaliers e que Westbrook e Durant mostraram nas Finais do Oeste que pode ser um caminho relativamente interessante para pontuar contra os Warriors. Caso a linha de lance livre fique congestionada demais, drives longos mirando não a cesta, mas sim a linha de fundo a fim de explorar possíveis brechas deixadas pela defesa tentando fechar os espaços e realizar passes a partir dali para alguém livre da linha de 3 pt, especialmente Kevin Love, J.R. Smith e talvez Channing Frye. Ou seja, tentaria emular o ataque do Miami Heat de Spoelstra com LeBron e Wade. O grande problema disso é que Kyrie não tem nem a visão de jogo e nem a precisão de passe de LeBron e Wade. Seria literalmente uma aposta em Kyrie tornar-se um Point Guard por excelência para essas duas primeiras partidas em casa.

Okay, temos os papéis de LeBron, Kyrie e de Kevin Love bem definidos. Agora vem o mais importante e o mais difícil: colocar na cabeça do resto do elenco (incluindo os reservas) de que essas são as Finais da NBA, eles estão dois jogos atrás e que eles precisam arremessar os melhores arremessos de suas vidas e que eles precisam livrar-se da defesa como se suas vidas dependessem disso. Esse é o ponto mais importante e foi o motivo pelo qual os Cavs perderam a primeira partida além dos lapsos mentais que LeBron mencionou após a partida: eles estavam tão paranóicos em parar os Splash Bros que esqueceram-se que em volta deles têm um time e sistema poderosíssimos.

tl:dr; A solução para os Cavs é: não dormir na defesa e ralar muito para fugir dos screens do outro lado da quadra e chover bola de 3. Não é fácil, mas é o mais viável e efetivo neste momento.
 
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If the Cavs want to make noise in this series, they gotta attack Curry.

That's what helped them last year. Curry is not a bad defender but in comparison to the rest of the starters and those who get big minutes, he's the weakest and should be your form of attack.

Put him in screen and roll situations with a guard and just force him to defend. Getting him in foul trouble would be good enough.

Also if Thompson isn't going to do anything for you on the boards, don't play big anymore. Maybe it's time for the Cavs to play LebBron at the five and maybe try to emulate what the Thunder did.

LeBron will have to play with some defensive intensity which may be scary for him (lol) but you're not going to rival the Warrior's versatility in any other way. With Love out, your conventional offense is already out of the picture anyway. You may as well try it.
 
The refs didn't call shit all game, so I don't know why Kyrie spent all of the second half making wild drives to the rim and throwing up flailing contested shots in an attempt to get a call.
 
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