Mafia vs Village Pokemon Reborn Mafia - GAME OVER, Totally Not Dead (Mafia) win!

Da Letter El

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Even if the villagers accidentally lynch a villager today, the villagers still can win during the next day. If the village has narrowed the field of suspects down to 3 and can spare to kill 2 of those 3, then the village has a 2/3rds chance of winning this game (because they have 2 lynch cycles remaining before the village is left with 1 villager and 1 mafia). Therefore I believe any tie agreement right now is not worth it.

At least wait to cause a tie when the odds are 50/50, which would be after this lynch. After this lynch if the village has 2 suspects remaining they can still lynch one of the two and have a 50% chance of being right (the 50/50 makes more sense to be the tie scenario rather than rn when the village has the advantage)

Asking for a tie when the village at this point has a statistical advantage doesn't make much sense to me. Maybe my math is wrong since I'm a mafia noob but to me rn it seems weird to have the tie now.

/me end rant, don't take what I say too seriously. I am just trying to use math to justify Texas's position above my post.
Undeleting this because enough people saw it, deleting it isn't fair to those who didn't, and it doesn't make any statements as to exact game state -- it merely operates off the stated assumptions in-thread.

From this point forward, if you are dead or not playing, please stop posting in the thread. All posts from this point forward by players not alive or not playing will be deleted.

(if you're a dead villager and want to weigh in on "fuck ties" since you've got some skin in the game I guess you can like Texas's post or something)
 
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Haruno is missing again.

You find the terrain has been set to Chess Board.

It is now Day 8. Deadline 24 hours from now at 10:00 AM PDT on Friday, November 10th
 
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ok i am Gym Leader Julia, each night i can "boom" somebody which means i send my voltorbs to keep ppl who arent killers away from them (safeguard). It says killers can go through cause they are crazy.

n0 martin
n1 granny pie (this did not go through)
n2 shubaka
I was then here recruited to the fake cult of arceus with haruno
n3 idle (i did this so blazade could complete his role we were paired up)
n4 leet
n5 dbw
n6 leet
 
It's been 13.5 hours already...

Based on our knowledge, we have a 66% chance of victory if we lynch within Viper/DBW. Because of the disparity between their actions and the actions of their predecessor, Lynch DBW.
 
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Ok, I discussed things, and realized something odd:

Mxmts' faction check on Viper failed n4.

All the hooks and other such abilities were gone by then, so how could that have happened?

We know:
Mxmts is a JOAT, that's confirmed
Viper has an SG as part of his ability
Haruno and I are town

As mxmts' self-watch caught Snype/DBW's visit, we know that they don't have an SG/hook/other such ability.

Because of that, why did it fail?

The only possible explanation is that Viper lied about targetting me d4.

Town has no reason to lie at this point itg.

As such, Lynch Viper.
 
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