I apologize for posting this so late, I will be voting to keep Ogerpon-Wellspring.
I'm going to try to not only summarize all the relevant arguments I've seen made so far as well as provide new insight which hasn't already been stated thousands of times before.
(Also before I get started I left out many things like what will drop and raise as well as checks & counters to this Pokémon because there's already a thread doing that so thank you to you.)
SUMMARIZATIONS:
IN FAVOR OF BAN:
(Here I will address most of the big arguments made in either direction and give my input if needed.)
Firstly I'm going to address the arguments made in favor of BANNING Waterpon, probably the most common of which being its coverage options. Many people argue that with moves such as encore, Superpower and play rough Pon has a reliable way to mitigate its checks, and although this is true to some extent Ogerpon uses Superpower a majority of time due to its offensive versatility, this is not to count out other moves like play rough but if Play Rough is granted by a potential option and something to be considered, it's only reasonable to grant that Mega-Venusaur, Sinistcha, and Scarf Kyurem are also valid and considerable checks to Ogerpon, as they all have usage comparable or better to that of Play Rough Pon, additionally, Play Rough is an unreliable check its dragon type checks, as at +2 its incapable of OHKOing Dragonite, not to mention the other threats you're leaving yourself open to by running play rough such as Ferrothorn and Kartana.
Another point brought up when people speak about banning Ogerpon is its MU Against team structures like fat balance or rain, and while I agree that it has an incredible matchup going into rain, rain has adapted to account for Pon's dominance with remedys like Pjab Pert & Barraskewda, also having soft checks in Tera Fairy Archaludon and Ferrothorn depending on the Ogerpon Set. Fat balance struggles against Ogerpon as well but at this point this structure as well has adapted to Ogerpon, with common cores like Dnite/MLati+Ferro. I think this is the best current argument in favor of banning Ogerpon, because although the teams struggling against Waterpon are beginning to adapt, there can be an argument made as to whether or not it's healthy for them to have to. I believe that as a top threat in the meta its natural for this to be the case and it doesn't warrant a ban off this alone.
The final argument I'll be addressing is more of a point brought up to further bolster the more pressing points and push it over the edge in people's minds. It is commonly stated that Ogerpons solid stats allow it to perform as a revenge killer or wallbreaker to further boost its utility as a progress maker, and while this can be true it is far from reliable at those roles, Ogerpon has decent bulk, speed and good offense, however without any boosts its limited as to what it can reliably revenge kill, as it's unable to OHKO pokemon such as Lele, Koko, Glowking, Iron Valiant and Lopunny without burning its tera, and even after tera it's unable to OHKO Garchomp, Tornadus-T and Zama without any set
AGAINST BAN:
As for arguments against banning Ogerpon it seems they're a lot more generalized and less concise to Ogerpon for some reason, despite there being multiple arguments in favor of keeping Pon that haven't been made. The most common argument I see made by people voting to keep Pon is that its stats are mediocre, I agree with this generally, as it doesn't really specialize in Bulk, Power or Speed, this pokemon serves as more of a generalist with solid or serviceable stats in all areas, however this isn't always a good thing and in this case I think its more of a detriment, usually a sweeper will excel in 2 of these categories (Zama: Speed/Bulk, Raging Bolt: Power/Bulk, Darkrai: Speed/Power) In Ogerpons case its really only above average in terms of power, and even then it's counteracted by its limited coverage and 4ms. Ogerpons speed leaves it open to revenge killers like specs Iron Valiant, Serperior, Weavile, Z-move Tornadus, Koko, Meowscarada, Darkrai, Rillaboom, Raging Bolt, Cinderace, Lopunny, Zamazenta, ect.
A point I don't think it's stated enough is just how hard it can actually be to set up Ogerpon, If Ogerpon doesn't run taunt or encore (the latter only being relevant in niche scenarios against walls, and both leaving you open to just about every dragon or grass mon imaginable) then every relevant pivot or wall in the game has a way to dent Ogerpon and leave it open to being Revenge killed. Here are examples of moves these mons can use:
The only Pokemon that Ogerpon really sets up on for free are thing like choice locked Shifu and Barraskewda, which is a luxury lost upon tera.
In conclusion, I think Ogerpon is a great mon for breaking through fat teams and opening up the rest of your team to start swinging the pendulum, however nothing about it to me seems overwhelming or oppressive. The way it has impacted the meta is noticeable but in my opinion healthy, I don't think it's done anything that a Zamazenta, Gliscor or earlier meta Iron Valiant hasn't. I also don't think it's healthy to look for meta shifts or changes just because people are getting bored, banning Oger would be just as restrictive as keeping it in the meta in my opinion. I'm not too invested in whether or not this mon gets banned, I think its a fun discussion to have and in this case I find it reasonable to keep this Poke in the meta.
(On an extra note, I apologize for not providing any calcs, many of the ones necessary are already posted somewhere in this thread and if you need me to give a specific one ask and show.)
I'm going to try to not only summarize all the relevant arguments I've seen made so far as well as provide new insight which hasn't already been stated thousands of times before.
(Also before I get started I left out many things like what will drop and raise as well as checks & counters to this Pokémon because there's already a thread doing that so thank you to you.)
SUMMARIZATIONS:
IN FAVOR OF BAN:
(Here I will address most of the big arguments made in either direction and give my input if needed.)
Firstly I'm going to address the arguments made in favor of BANNING Waterpon, probably the most common of which being its coverage options. Many people argue that with moves such as encore, Superpower and play rough Pon has a reliable way to mitigate its checks, and although this is true to some extent Ogerpon uses Superpower a majority of time due to its offensive versatility, this is not to count out other moves like play rough but if Play Rough is granted by a potential option and something to be considered, it's only reasonable to grant that Mega-Venusaur, Sinistcha, and Scarf Kyurem are also valid and considerable checks to Ogerpon, as they all have usage comparable or better to that of Play Rough Pon, additionally, Play Rough is an unreliable check its dragon type checks, as at +2 its incapable of OHKOing Dragonite, not to mention the other threats you're leaving yourself open to by running play rough such as Ferrothorn and Kartana.
Another point brought up when people speak about banning Ogerpon is its MU Against team structures like fat balance or rain, and while I agree that it has an incredible matchup going into rain, rain has adapted to account for Pon's dominance with remedys like Pjab Pert & Barraskewda, also having soft checks in Tera Fairy Archaludon and Ferrothorn depending on the Ogerpon Set. Fat balance struggles against Ogerpon as well but at this point this structure as well has adapted to Ogerpon, with common cores like Dnite/MLati+Ferro. I think this is the best current argument in favor of banning Ogerpon, because although the teams struggling against Waterpon are beginning to adapt, there can be an argument made as to whether or not it's healthy for them to have to. I believe that as a top threat in the meta its natural for this to be the case and it doesn't warrant a ban off this alone.
The final argument I'll be addressing is more of a point brought up to further bolster the more pressing points and push it over the edge in people's minds. It is commonly stated that Ogerpons solid stats allow it to perform as a revenge killer or wallbreaker to further boost its utility as a progress maker, and while this can be true it is far from reliable at those roles, Ogerpon has decent bulk, speed and good offense, however without any boosts its limited as to what it can reliably revenge kill, as it's unable to OHKO pokemon such as Lele, Koko, Glowking, Iron Valiant and Lopunny without burning its tera, and even after tera it's unable to OHKO Garchomp, Tornadus-T and Zama without any set
AGAINST BAN:
As for arguments against banning Ogerpon it seems they're a lot more generalized and less concise to Ogerpon for some reason, despite there being multiple arguments in favor of keeping Pon that haven't been made. The most common argument I see made by people voting to keep Pon is that its stats are mediocre, I agree with this generally, as it doesn't really specialize in Bulk, Power or Speed, this pokemon serves as more of a generalist with solid or serviceable stats in all areas, however this isn't always a good thing and in this case I think its more of a detriment, usually a sweeper will excel in 2 of these categories (Zama: Speed/Bulk, Raging Bolt: Power/Bulk, Darkrai: Speed/Power) In Ogerpons case its really only above average in terms of power, and even then it's counteracted by its limited coverage and 4ms. Ogerpons speed leaves it open to revenge killers like specs Iron Valiant, Serperior, Weavile, Z-move Tornadus, Koko, Meowscarada, Darkrai, Rillaboom, Raging Bolt, Cinderace, Lopunny, Zamazenta, ect.
A point I don't think it's stated enough is just how hard it can actually be to set up Ogerpon, If Ogerpon doesn't run taunt or encore (the latter only being relevant in niche scenarios against walls, and both leaving you open to just about every dragon or grass mon imaginable) then every relevant pivot or wall in the game has a way to dent Ogerpon and leave it open to being Revenge killed. Here are examples of moves these mons can use:
Alolamola: Toxic
Clodsire: Toxic, Poison Jab
Corviknight: Brave Bird, U-Turn
Ferrothorn: Thunder Wave, Power Whip
Garganacl: Salt Cure
Great Tusk: Body Press
Hatterenne: Psyshock, Nuzzle
Heatran: Toxic, Magma Storm
Iron Crown: Psychic Noise, Volt Switch, Future Sight
Iron Treads: Volt Switch, Steel Beam
Moltres: Wisp, Toxic, Hurricane, U-Turn
Pelipper: U-Turn, Hurricane
Scizor: U-Turn, Close Combat
Glowking: T-Wave, Sludge Bomb, Future Sight
Pex: Poison Jab, Toxic
Zapdos: Volt Switch, U-Turn, Hurricane
Tornadus: Hurricane, U-turn
Clodsire: Toxic, Poison Jab
Corviknight: Brave Bird, U-Turn
Ferrothorn: Thunder Wave, Power Whip
Garganacl: Salt Cure
Great Tusk: Body Press
Hatterenne: Psyshock, Nuzzle
Heatran: Toxic, Magma Storm
Iron Crown: Psychic Noise, Volt Switch, Future Sight
Iron Treads: Volt Switch, Steel Beam
Moltres: Wisp, Toxic, Hurricane, U-Turn
Pelipper: U-Turn, Hurricane
Scizor: U-Turn, Close Combat
Glowking: T-Wave, Sludge Bomb, Future Sight
Pex: Poison Jab, Toxic
Zapdos: Volt Switch, U-Turn, Hurricane
Tornadus: Hurricane, U-turn
In conclusion, I think Ogerpon is a great mon for breaking through fat teams and opening up the rest of your team to start swinging the pendulum, however nothing about it to me seems overwhelming or oppressive. The way it has impacted the meta is noticeable but in my opinion healthy, I don't think it's done anything that a Zamazenta, Gliscor or earlier meta Iron Valiant hasn't. I also don't think it's healthy to look for meta shifts or changes just because people are getting bored, banning Oger would be just as restrictive as keeping it in the meta in my opinion. I'm not too invested in whether or not this mon gets banned, I think its a fun discussion to have and in this case I find it reasonable to keep this Poke in the meta.
(On an extra note, I apologize for not providing any calcs, many of the ones necessary are already posted somewhere in this thread and if you need me to give a specific one ask and show.)
Dies to double play rough on the switch, if multiscale isn't up +2 cudgel does 90% after a tera too
Dies to +2 Superpower, can also become setup fodder if its encore and dies to +2 cudgel if you do tera after minimal chip
Needs to tera dragon to even stand a chance, +2 cudgel is always killing after rocks if you're standard, spdef just outright dies
Bulky SD once again dies to +2 cudgel after rocks and tera, offensive sets just die full stop
Needs to stunt its damage output by running body press on curse sets to even stand a chance, also weak to encore and takes 70% from power whip so tera's required
SUPER niche mon, also loses to play rough horribly
Super weak to encore sets, also forced into teraing
Loses to Play rough, also is forced to play the speed tie game as it can't oneshot wellspring
Decent offensive check, however it only works once due to the intrepid shield nerf
