lynch kirsche/jalmont
jalmont/kirsche cannot kill blazade
blazade lynches Paperblade
blazade wins
lynch Paperblade
-jalmont/kirsche both shoot blazade, blazade cannot block both shots
--kirsche wins due to self-bg if he can
--mortal combat standoff walrein priority decides who wins
-if one of kirsche/jalmont shoots the other and blazade lives, blazade wins
no lynch (aka lynch Blazade)
-jalmont and kirsche both shoot blazade, killing him
--if kirsche can self-bg: jalmont is kingmaker, whoever is not lynched of kirsche/paperblade wins
--otherwise, mortal combat standoff walrein priority decides who wins
-if jalmont/kirsche shoot anyone other than blazade, they risk him living, in which case he wins
This is my math based on my knowledge of the roles (kirsche is a BG that can target himself, jalmont is a JOAT with all abilities used up, I am an expert killer with a BPV and 1x kill that are both used up, and Blazade has 3 votes, as well as hooks his target if they attempt to target him).
If jalmont and kirsche attempt to lynch me, I will lynch one of them with Blazade and give him the win. This means a no lynch (aka attempted Blazade lynch) is required unless someone wishes to kingmake in his favor.
From here, it becomes a game of luck. jalmont shooting blazade is essentially a resignation--he loses regardless of what else happens. If kirsche shoots me, blazade wins, if kirsche shoots blazade with him, jalmont becomes kingmaker (or hopes that kirsche cannot self-bg and for a priority win). At the same time, jalmont will instantly lose should he not shoot blazade and blazade chooses to block kirsche's action, as blazade will then win. Furthermore, this would require kirsche to not be a self BG and for jalmont to win in priority over kirsche.
kirsche in a similar boat, but with one major difference. kirsche would not be kingmaker, and thus would never shoot me unless he believed jalmont would kingmake in my favor and wanted to hope for the 50/50 on Blazade (and an additional one if he can't selfbg).
As you can see, I have no hard decisions at this point. Neither does Blazade, tbh. At this point, my decisions have all been made.
There were other kills I could have made, but the EV was always lower. Killing jalmont would lead to a no lynch into a 50/50 on Blazade living--if he dies, RD wins. If he lives, we lynch an RD and have a standoff, in which I lose unless he shoots the last dog and they die as I shoot him. Not promising.
Killing Blazade is game losing. A no lynch is forced, resulting in jalmont shooting at an RD while they shoot me for sure. If they shoot jalmont, they open themselves to unnecessary risk, where I win the game if jalmont's kill succeeds. Killing me merely forces the
Killing kirsche is effectively the same as killing King.
A no kill could have been interesting, but far too complicated and in most cases just ends up as one of the others above, but out of my control, as all other kills result in a no lynch today, whereas nokilling causes a lynch today.
I did what I could to clinch it. I don't blame the other players if they do the same, knowing that everything hinges on the actions of others
lynch blazade
jalmont/kirsche cannot kill blazade
blazade lynches Paperblade
blazade wins
lynch Paperblade
-jalmont/kirsche both shoot blazade, blazade cannot block both shots
--kirsche wins due to self-bg if he can
--mortal combat standoff walrein priority decides who wins
-if one of kirsche/jalmont shoots the other and blazade lives, blazade wins
no lynch (aka lynch Blazade)
-jalmont and kirsche both shoot blazade, killing him
--if kirsche can self-bg: jalmont is kingmaker, whoever is not lynched of kirsche/paperblade wins
--otherwise, mortal combat standoff walrein priority decides who wins
-if jalmont/kirsche shoot anyone other than blazade, they risk him living, in which case he wins
This is my math based on my knowledge of the roles (kirsche is a BG that can target himself, jalmont is a JOAT with all abilities used up, I am an expert killer with a BPV and 1x kill that are both used up, and Blazade has 3 votes, as well as hooks his target if they attempt to target him).
If jalmont and kirsche attempt to lynch me, I will lynch one of them with Blazade and give him the win. This means a no lynch (aka attempted Blazade lynch) is required unless someone wishes to kingmake in his favor.
From here, it becomes a game of luck. jalmont shooting blazade is essentially a resignation--he loses regardless of what else happens. If kirsche shoots me, blazade wins, if kirsche shoots blazade with him, jalmont becomes kingmaker (or hopes that kirsche cannot self-bg and for a priority win). At the same time, jalmont will instantly lose should he not shoot blazade and blazade chooses to block kirsche's action, as blazade will then win. Furthermore, this would require kirsche to not be a self BG and for jalmont to win in priority over kirsche.
kirsche in a similar boat, but with one major difference. kirsche would not be kingmaker, and thus would never shoot me unless he believed jalmont would kingmake in my favor and wanted to hope for the 50/50 on Blazade (and an additional one if he can't selfbg).
As you can see, I have no hard decisions at this point. Neither does Blazade, tbh. At this point, my decisions have all been made.
There were other kills I could have made, but the EV was always lower. Killing jalmont would lead to a no lynch into a 50/50 on Blazade living--if he dies, RD wins. If he lives, we lynch an RD and have a standoff, in which I lose unless he shoots the last dog and they die as I shoot him. Not promising.
Killing Blazade is game losing. A no lynch is forced, resulting in jalmont shooting at an RD while they shoot me for sure. If they shoot jalmont, they open themselves to unnecessary risk, where I win the game if jalmont's kill succeeds. Killing me merely forces the
Killing kirsche is effectively the same as killing King.
A no kill could have been interesting, but far too complicated and in most cases just ends up as one of the others above, but out of my control, as all other kills result in a no lynch today, whereas nokilling causes a lynch today.
I did what I could to clinch it. I don't blame the other players if they do the same, knowing that everything hinges on the actions of others
lynch blazade