NOC Dragon Ball Z NOC - Day 4

[LightWolf]

Kinda assumed mafia would count since it can be metagamed. Also you are being silly US, IF WE FORBID PEOPLE FROM CLAING then mafia can't just waste our 4 chances without giving themselves away as mafia, simple as that.

Also good joke US, you are actually assuming we'd lynch one of them instantly? HAHAHAHA. No this is NOC we will argue for a day and lynch someone instead because people will pussy out of accidentally lynching the clean one and instead lynch someone who had a shitty opinion on said discussion.

Also no they can't say they know X is bad, that's softclaiming info role, EXPRESSIVELY FORBIDDEN by the rules. Also US I do like how you ignore the point I made about you creating a list of people likely not Vegeta here, especially when I made it p clear I expect a reaction.

Summary(warning not actually short): We are shouldn't let the mafia waste our fucking claims, end of discussion, no claiming unless you have a relevant result revealing a bad guy. Being lynched? We lynch you the second you claim. Why? Outed Doctor is useless, every role while roleblocker is alive is pointless, every role while 17 and 18 are alive is useless. Only claim to counterclaim someone else presenting bad guy revealing info, but not if someone is being lynched.

(For those interested in the math(warning not actually math): For every mafia who desperation claims and would live unless counterclaimed, we have villagers who'd try and prevent their mislynch by claiming, but wasting a claim just to die down the line without being able to accomplish anything again. What this comes down to is how much we value claims compared to lynches, because every correct lynch would cost us a villager of any role mafia wants outed. If they claim Goku when lynched real one has to come out otherwise we likely let the guy live, and we all know how bad that is for us. If we forbid claims like that from the get go, we have a huge control over the late game and at least trading all early claims for confirmed mafias, be it via info roles or mafia going against the no claiming rule)

 

[Blue_Tornado]

Common sense dictates a mafia can't just take away one of our claim options when they're going to die, what's the point then? I support being flexible with the claims because you can't know what roles will be super critical to the game state later on.

In other news, everyone vote. It's even in the rules. But you should be voting anyway. Like this:

Vote jalmont

 

[JALMONT]

2's a crowd, 3's a party

Lynch Jalmont

 

[JALMONT]

fuk u bt

 

[UncleSam]

Yes it is 100% in our best interests to lynch between a 50/50 between say a BPV and a not-villager. That is an easy call, and isn't even worth discussing. The mafia roles are all so much stronger and can all be killed by our own vigilante if we pick wrong that it is just completely and utterly foolish not to try to force the mafia to feel pressured to 50/50 with our BPV, saying otherwise is utter nonsense.

Also my understanding was that the mafia couldn't PM one another from the signup thread, could jumpluff tell us how the mafia are allowed to communicate? If they can't talk to each other during the day then the BPV claiming will most likely just pubclean someone who can't be killed, which is 100% how we want to use our claims ideally in any case, since the mafia will all look at each other and pussy out of 50/50ing it plus there's no way the neutrals can put themselves into that position.

I agree that the Doctor or Roleblocker or other random roles claiming doesn't help us because at best the Jailkeeper saves them but they become vanillagers, I would never in a million years suggest a villager who is getting mislynched waste one of our claims uselessly. In fact I do want to come to a consensus on which roles should never claim due to being useless while claimed, I will put my suggested list at the end of this post.

The notion that I'm narrowing the list of who is Vegeta is both silly in that that's not what I'm doing but also frankly now that you mention it I'm 100% ok with that, Vegeta is more likely to kill the village than the mafia due to us having so many more targeting roles so I would rather a bunch of not-Vegetas be known publicly, since the threat to the village is greater than the threat to the mafia (plus remember that the Godfather Cell and Broly can't die by targeting Vegeta presumably (jumpluff pls confirm), so it's really only the Transporter, Framer, Inspector, and the Androids who need to worry about it while we have legit 8 roles that could die by targeting Vegeta).

I don't see how saying that X is bad is softclaiming a role, a softclaim is indicating you are some particular role without actually claiming it. You could be any number of roles which got a guilty on someone (or have the role they are claiming) and therefore aren't softclaiming any role in particular or even a class of roles, not to mention you could simply have noticed what someone else said and picked up on a hint and therefore know that someone is bad, I don't see any reason that ought to be disallowed by the current rules, which say nothing about how much you're allowed to reveal you've deduced about other people or what you claim to know, only what you're allowed to actually claim in terms of hard results; the only softclaim rule is against the Crier, because that's so easily verified and cleaned. It seems really silly if it's going by your definition because the mafia could always argue that there are subtle or unclear 'softclaim' hints that people drop based on how they speak that I'd rather not get into the semantics of, which would be impossible to enforce.

If you did in fact know that the mafia could use up our claims while they are getting lynched then I retract my previous statement and FoS on LightWolf, it is 100% foolish to allow the mafia to use our own resources. My original statement that he was probably village was assuming that he was ignorant of the rules, like Blazade seems to be, and therefore is no longer valid.

Also I promised that I would list which roles should:
NEVER EVER GET BACK TOGETHER CLAIM UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES:
-Dende/Doctor
-Tien Shinhan/Escort
-King Kai/Crier (Obviously, disallowed by the role itself)
-Son Gohan/Cop IF the Framer is still alive OR you have only gotten cleans with your checks (THIS MEANS NEVER CLAIM UNLESS THE FRAMER IS DEAD AND YOU'VE GOTTEN A GUILTY SINCE HIS DEATH)
-Lord Beerus/JoaT IF you have used your check/shot already and the check wasn't a guilty post-Framer death (see above for explanation)
-Bulma/Reviver IF the mafia roleblocker is still alive (if mafia roleblocker is dead then you should claim 100% if you're getting mislynched, because the Revive can presumably be used to prove yourself then)

Roles I'm uncertain yet/still thinking about whether they ought to claim:
-Piccolo/Jailer (On the one hand this is a somewhat useful role as both a roleblocker and a BG, and can maybe be verified by other targeting roles, but I think that certainly IF the mafia roleblocker is alive AND the roleblock can stop this role (jumpluff pls confirm) then this should never be claiming while the roleblocker is alive at the very least)
-Son Goku/Vigilante (I feel like this is such a strong role that I'd like it to be able to have a claim to one of our claims to survive, but at the same time I feel like it can be blocked so easily and is stopped by two of the non-village roles' passively forever that maybe at the least we should say not to claim)

Roles I think 100% ought to claim today, though give it 24 hours at the least to get more opinions than just mine and host confirmation on some details:
-Mr. Buu/Bulletproof (I think this is as obvious as it can get, either the mafia get into a 50/50 with our worst role or we clean someone 100% who the mafia can't realistically nightkill. This seems to me to be a slamdunk and I'm probably going to hard accuse anyone who suggests the Bulletproof shouldn't claim today unless they provide a damn good reason why)
-Vegeta/Veteran (This isn't quite as obvious in that I need jumpluff to confirm precisely how this role interacts with the mafia/people being protected etc., but if it fails to kill Broly/Cell and can kill 2/3 of the village then I definitely want to force the mafia into either going to a 50/50 with it or cleaning it 100% ALSO WE NEED HOST CONFIRMATION ON HOW THE TRANSPORTER INTERACTS WITH THIS ROLE BEFORE IT CLAIMS, IF THE TRANSPORTER CAN KILL PEOPLE BY FORCING THEM TO TARGET VEGETA THEN OBVIOUSLY THIS ROLE NEVER CLAIMS UNLESS THE TRANSPORTER IS DEAD AND IN FACT THIS ROLE SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER JUST GETTING MISLYNCHED IF THAT'S THE CASE AND IT BECOMES OBVIOUS THE MAFIA ARE USING YOU TO KILL VILLAGERS)

ROLES THAT OUGHT TO CLAIM 100% UNDER CERTAIN CIRCUMSTANCES:
-Son Goten/Tracker IF someone claims a non-targeting role (like BPV) and then targets someone (note that it could be dangerous to track a BPV claim depending on how precisely the Tranporter works)
-Trunks/Watcher IF see one person target someone who dies or similar 100% slam-dunk guilty (I think this is obvious, if we can trade a claim for a 100% guilty plus 100% clean then that's always worth it)

Ok I would like everyone (particularly LightWolf) to comment on this list and say where they agree/disagree.

I think it is incredibly important to come to a consensus on how to claim so that if the mafia start trying to ruin our claims we can shut that shit down ASAP. I CONSIDER THIS FAR MORE IMPORTANT THAN RANDOM TROLL BANDWAGON VOTING AND I WILL BE SUSPICIOUS OF ANYONE WHO FAILS TO COMMENT ON THIS LIST OR GIVE ACTUAL MEANINGFUL INPUT ABOUT OUR PREPONDERANCE OF NIGHT ROLES.

 

[JALMONT]

there's probably a way to break this setup but i cba to think about it hard enough to figure it out (that transporter role fucks everything up because otherwise you can have something where the cop claims, BG/jailkeeper/watcher stay on the cop and then we just have him clear ppl one by one. maybe you can still do that. idk)

the other idea i had is dependent on if mafia claims count towards the claim total. if not, we just mass claim until the first villager is godkilled. obviously that's not as good of a strategy but it sure would be interesting!

ill read sam's post later lol although i will just say i don't understand what those two roles claiming does to help us out. the mafia can't fakeclaim those roles anymore?? if anything they just limit actually claims in the future which would suck esp because that would mean maybe losing important roles later down the road

 

[Yeti]

I'd like to claim Ho-Oh

 

[UncleSam]

Jalmont the point is to get 1-2 (if Vetega can be claimed) 100% cleans who the mafia can't realistically nightkill which is both SO good for making sure discussion isn't being driven by the bads but ALSO because the mafia will have a much higher chance of crossfiring among the rest of the roles. It's a massive win for the village if we can use 1-2 claims to clean 1-2 people 100% so long as those people don't just immediately get offed.

 

[UncleSam]

Vote Yeti stop trolling and contribute

 

[Yeti]

Wouldn't be a NOC without jumpy af Sam hopping on my dick d1 ayy lemao

Calm ur tits big boy I've been reading when I'm not falling back asleep I'll wallpost in like an hour once I've showered hold me to it k? K

edit within the hour: i am now writing said post

 

[Blazade]

UncleSam I think you overvalue having public clears. Don't forget there are potentially 3 kills a night and the BP/Vegeta are some of the only deterrents we have, and I think that if BP comes forward all the good roles have a much better chance of getting randed.

We've had a lot of dumb innocent childs in the past and we all know you're going to drive discussion anyway.

Again I know that this discussion is important but I dislike you saying you'd be immediately suspicious of people based on this kind of stuff

 

[King_]

I read US big post, wouldn't Vegeta claims still be iffy AND also use up the claims. Since anyone can claim Vegeta and still not be confirmed?

 

[King_]

Also how do we know how many claims we have left considering all the soft claims etc.

 

[UncleSam]

It increases the chance of crossfire just as much as it increases the chance of good roles veing hit, difference being we have more of those than they have so it is 100% to our benefit to do that

Public clears which also cant be killed are incredibly important, because they ensure that discussion has some village voices on one side or other. Nothing is worse than mafia-led discussion in a NOC outside of maybe jjst straight idling

 

[UncleSam]

No King if one person claims Vegeta and no CC then that person is confirmed. Not CCing a role the rest of the village wants to claim would honestly be such a bad play by a villager that ill N1 you until literally forever if you do it, this is your warning my fellow villagers and particularly LW who i could see doing something that stoopid (this is an inside joke) then trying to justify it

 

[JALMONT]

Jalmont the point is to get 1-2 (if Vetega can be claimed) 100% cleans who the mafia can't realistically nightkill which is both SO good for making sure discussion isn't being driven by the bads but ALSO because the mafia will have a much higher chance of crossfiring among the rest of the roles. It's a massive win for the village if we can use 1-2 claims to clean 1-2 people 100% so long as those people don't just immediately get offed.

I agree with Blazade in that I too believe you are overvaluing the importance of cleans. I'm not too sure what you mean by "mafia-led discussion"? Like, I'm not sure how that happens and how that would be harmful (and I doubt will happen anyways?). If the mafia try to lead discussion into having people do things that benefit them, then unless they are very subtle, someone's going to disagree and have something to say about it.

In any case, the xfire chance doesn't increase by that much, considering that kills hitting those two roles are essentially xfire (since one kills the killer, the other is the same as a BG blocking the kill). So I don't think there's that much benefit in terms of more xfire.

 

[Blazade]

Crossfire math:

If no one claims:

1-(12/15)(12/18)(12/17)=62% chance of some crossfire

If only BP claims:

1-(11/14)(11/17)(11/16)=65%

If BP and Vegeta Claim:

1-(10/13)(10/16)(10/15)=67%

Chance of 3 good roles getting hit (non BP, Crier, Vegeta or Crossfire)

No one claims:

(9/15)(9/18)(9/17) = 15%

BP claims:

(9/14)(9/17)(9/16) = 19%

BP and vegeta claim:

(9/13)(9/16)(9/15) = 23%

This doesn't take doctor or double targeting into account, or address other likely scenarios like 2 good roles being hit but the principle and the math are similar for those, that more public bad role info hurts us more than it helps us in the early nights.

We are also ignoring that roles like BP and Vegeta can play in a certain way to ignore randomness and potentially draw actions of their own intelligent play and you are robbing them of the chance to do that. We also waste claims that may not need to happen because of deduction. We also probably waste 2 on Vegeta counterclaims that also are pretty detrimental. If we have a culture of people never claiming unless absolutely necessary (info role gets a firm guilty, vegeta kills the mafia) the mafia can waste our claims as they get lynched 1 for 1 no problem.

We should be keeping our roles in our pants for now in my opinion

 

[UncleSam]

I agree with Blazade in that I too believe you are overvaluing the importance of cleans. I'm not too sure what you mean by "mafia-led discussion"? Like, I'm not sure how that happens and how that would be harmful (and I doubt will happen anyways?). If the mafia try to lead discussion into having people do things that benefit them, then unless they are very subtle, someone's going to disagree and have something to say about it.

In any case, the xfire chance doesn't increase by that much, considering that kills hitting those two roles are essentially xfire (since one kills the killer, the other is the same as a BG blocking the kill). So I don't think there's that much benefit in terms of more xfire.

I don't think you realize that it's not the importance of clears, it's the importance of clears who also can't be killed. This not only helps with lynching correctly but also helps all of our roles target properly and gives direction to the village with a minimum of claims required, which is the entire point of the game.

The only way I'd agree with you is if the clears wouldn't be that helpful in terms of providing direction (calling out anyone who plans on idling here), but there's no way of knowing that one way or the other until we come to a consensus on who claims. Frankly given the activity already I am quite hopeful that even 1-2 clears who the mafia couldn't immediately off would be a huge help in coordinating our actions properly even just from the perspective of rogue village roles (so like the Watcher/Tracker/Cop etc. have a much better idea of how to maximize their chances of finding bads with a few cleans; ie having a few cleans improves our information role accuracy as well as improving chances of crossfire).

One other thing I'll note: If you are Cop and find someone as mafia, that person is way more likely to be mafia than not. The reason for this is in how the Framer role works:

Frieza (Framer) - Frieza is the galactic overload which is feared by everyone. He has a very big army and is enemy of Saiyans. He can destroy planets in mere seconds. He can choose one person each night who will be shown as a random mafia if investigated that night.

In other words, if you inspect the Framed person then that person is as likely to be shown as Third Party or Broly as they are Mafia. What this means is that, each night, there are:
- 3 Players who show as mafia
- A 33% chance that one player shows as mafia (because Broly can be pinpointed by the cop, so randomly speaking, there are three options to be randomed via the Framer: Broly, Mafia, or Third Party/Android)

In other words, there is a 10/11 chance, speaking randomly and at the start of the game, that if you hit someone and find them as mafia then they are actually guilty. Conversely, if you hit a 'Broly', there is only a 3/4 chance that person is Broly (1 real Broly, 1/3 chance of there being a fake Broly), and a 6/7 chance that person is an Android if you find them as Third Party. In other words, I'd strongly consider outing someone you find as 'Mafia' guilty but probably not as the other two, since the odds are so much better in that case. Would like confirmation from jumpluff as to how the randomization works though.

Also Blazade/jalmont keep in mind that the Androids have to agree on a kill, so the odds of three kills are somewhat low early on imo. Plus as mentioned the fact that the Doctor/Jailkeeper can target among a narrower group (and the information roles) all benefit us from having clears; in other words, having clears buffs every single village role.

Frankly you're also assuming the mafia doesn't counterclaim, which is a rather big assumption, though I'm glad you're making the argument (sort of like you're communicating to the other mafias not to bother counterclaiming xD) that they shouldn't bother.

Also jumpluff can you answer once more whether the mafia claiming something counts against our claims total. It seems really unfair that it does now that I think more about it, and if not then we definitely can wait on some of our claims though I think BPV at the very least should be claiming 100% of the time here regardless.

 

[UncleSam]

Also I'm suspicious as to why Jalmont and particularly Blazade are ignoring my list of roles earlier, which includes conditions under which roles ought to claim and which roles ought never to claim, he seems to be spending a lot of time talking about relatively minor stuff so I'm going to FoS Blazade for now.

 

[rssp1]

Ok so i might be misunderstanding the transporter but from the OP it seems like it's a bus driver? as in it would switch the places of two players and all actions targeting one would be targeting the other. In that case, it's still concerning, but not as concerning as Sam is saying?
Actually wouldnt the transporter just die if they targeted vegeta lol

 

[UncleSam]

Ok so i might be misunderstanding the transporter but from the OP it seems like it's a bus driver? as in it would switch the places of two players and all actions targeting one would be targeting the other. In that case, it's still concerning, but not as concerning as Sam is saying?
Actually wouldnt the transporter just die if they targeted vegeta lol

Ya you're right rssp1, now that you mention it there's really no reason for Vegeta to be worried about claiming. I'm going to shift Vegeta into the BPV column of 'absolutely should claim', I just hadn't had two seconds to think about how the Transporter role works given all the useless math stuff I was looking at from Blazade's post.

 

[Blazade]

While I appreciate the shade casting on me in multiple posts, we don't need to publicly coordinate actions when a transporter exists and even if there wasn't mafia can exploit any plans. People should be trusted to be more autonomous in a NOC game and public leaders don't do much

I am not ignoring your list I just can't respond to every little thing lol.

Goku shouldn't be claiming especially if watcher is dead because that's a free kill for village, I thought that was obvious.

 

[UncleSam]

I didn't mean coordinate as in literally give specific targets to; I meant coordinate as in 'I suspect these five people, consider checking among them', or 'I trust these three people, consider protecting amongst them', etc. Obviously roles have to be way more autonomous in an NOC and have to think for themselves, that doesn't mean that getting a known clean person's perspective on others won't help them make better choices.

 

[rssp1]

i agree with no coordination though
i'd like confirmation on how the roles work before any claiming occurs since if we misunderstood how stuff works
well that wouldnt be very good

 

[Blazade]

My "useless math" is meant to convey an intuition I have using hard numbers so I'm not just yelling at you all the time.

I made my position on when roles should claim clear, Vegeta should claim if he thinks he killed mafia so that town doesn't run into him because mafia will know who he is anyway. Info roles claim on firm guiltys (no framers) or a sufficient number of known non cell clears (depends on context), everyone else calms down and doesn't claim until LYLO or similar.

Why is a known clear making decisions better than I am? I'm town, don't I also know who is suspicious/good/whatever from the same info the clear has? They can make their points, but they're going to have to use the same logic they would have if they weren't necessarily clear if they want to convince me to change my mind.

And guess what, town dominating the discussion like that allows mafia to lie low and buddy hard. It makes scumhunting more difficult for us just as much as it gives town some direction. Clears are good, but they're not that good.