Jw, maybe I sound stupid, but am I the only who thinks Kyrie is overrated? like this dude had a good finals and suddenly everybody is on his nuts. IMO he hasnt done enough to prove hes top better than CP3, curry,westbrook or Damian Lillard and he isn't and elite PG yet.
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Official NBA 16-17' Season Thread
- Thread starter trikx_insane
- Start date
No I dont think Kyrie is overrated. I mean yeah CP3, curry and westbrook are still better than him, but u gotta remember hes only like 25. Other than those 3 kryrie better than everyone else imo.
Man the preseason is hella long; craving to watch some good games :[
At this very moment, I think Curry, Westbrook, and CP3 are a tier above the other dudes (or Curry and Westbrook are a tier above CP3, who is a tier above the other dudes), and the next tier comes down to Lillard / Lowry / Kyrie (I would put them in that order).
Imo, Lillard would be the PG I'd pick in terms of starting a franchise. He's got the heart and the drive, and at 26 he's just entering his prime. This year, he's proven his ability to lead a successful team (of many new faces, as well). He's gone out of his way to foster bonds between his teammates, and while that doesn't necessarily affect his standing as a PG, it means he has their trust and respect. Skill-wise, he's not ridiculously efficient, but he's definitely a top scorer, and dare I say he runs the offense better than Kyrie as well. He's also durable, missing only 7 games in his career.
Obviously I'm a homer, but what pushes Lowry into the 5th slot for me is his defensive ability combined with his leadership of a top 5 or 6 team in the league. This is only bolstered by the fact that he carried a team whose second and third best players play the most outdated games for their respective positions in today's NBA (Derozan being a 2000-era iso-heavy guard, JV being a post player with middling range and middling defense) to a 56-26 record. To top if off, he's a great hustler (does the dirty work) and is the best rebounder of the three. Now I know Lowry has most likely hit his peak, and at 30 he probably won't reach this level of output (and this many minutes) again. But he's had relatively low mileage over his career compared to most starting guards, so perhaps he can stay in all-star form for at least 2 more years.
Kyrie had a great postseason, but he's injury-prone and hasn't put up comparable numbers in the regular season (well, he was alrite in '14-'15, and maybe this year is the year). He hasn't shown the same leadership ability as the other two and likely won't for several more years under Lebron; you can throw what-if questions around, but if it hasn't happened yet, it hasn't happened. I have no doubt he's the most skilled of the three, and he'll surpass Lowry in the next year or two (and maybe Lillard later on), but I don't think he's quite there yet.
Imo, Lillard would be the PG I'd pick in terms of starting a franchise. He's got the heart and the drive, and at 26 he's just entering his prime. This year, he's proven his ability to lead a successful team (of many new faces, as well). He's gone out of his way to foster bonds between his teammates, and while that doesn't necessarily affect his standing as a PG, it means he has their trust and respect. Skill-wise, he's not ridiculously efficient, but he's definitely a top scorer, and dare I say he runs the offense better than Kyrie as well. He's also durable, missing only 7 games in his career.
Obviously I'm a homer, but what pushes Lowry into the 5th slot for me is his defensive ability combined with his leadership of a top 5 or 6 team in the league. This is only bolstered by the fact that he carried a team whose second and third best players play the most outdated games for their respective positions in today's NBA (Derozan being a 2000-era iso-heavy guard, JV being a post player with middling range and middling defense) to a 56-26 record. To top if off, he's a great hustler (does the dirty work) and is the best rebounder of the three. Now I know Lowry has most likely hit his peak, and at 30 he probably won't reach this level of output (and this many minutes) again. But he's had relatively low mileage over his career compared to most starting guards, so perhaps he can stay in all-star form for at least 2 more years.
Kyrie had a great postseason, but he's injury-prone and hasn't put up comparable numbers in the regular season (well, he was alrite in '14-'15, and maybe this year is the year). He hasn't shown the same leadership ability as the other two and likely won't for several more years under Lebron; you can throw what-if questions around, but if it hasn't happened yet, it hasn't happened. I have no doubt he's the most skilled of the three, and he'll surpass Lowry in the next year or two (and maybe Lillard later on), but I don't think he's quite there yet.
^Definitely agree with above. Kyrie is an All-Star Point Guard and is one of the top PG's in the league but Curry, WB, and CP3 are all tier ones. Surely Kyrie has had so many huge games and huge moments but his #'s and leadership doesn't quite compare to the top tier PGs. Dame, like Tokyo Tom said, is already a proven leader for his team and the franchise - and is someone I would take to start a franchise as well. I think Kyrie is just someone who appeals to the AAU basketball and casual fans with his flashy handles/crossovers, again nothing wrong with that, and all in which is why they think he's up there as one of the top PGs, cause trust me there are a lot of people that say Kyrie is better than Steph after the Finals, blah blah (pains me to even think about lol) <- And again I don't mean he's not a top point guard and I'm not knocking on Kyrie because I don't hate him. I certainly think he's top 5 but the other 3 are all on another level. In terms of accomplishments though, Kyrie is definitely above most PGs with what he has done so far in his career.
Anyways, predicts:
Anyways, predicts:
West
1.GSW
2.SAS
3.LAC
4.POR
5.UTA
6.HOU
7.OKC
8.MIN
9.MEM
10.SAC
11.DEN
12.DAL
13.NOR
14.PHX
15.LAL
East
1.CLE
2.IND
3.BOS
4.TOR
5.ATL
6.CHA
7.WAS
8.CHI
9.MIA
10.NYK
11.ORL
12.DET
13.MIL
14.BKN
15.PHI
MVP: Kawhi Leonard
DPOY: Hassan Whiteside
ROY: Buddy Hield
MIP: Karl Anthony Towns
COY: Terry Stotts
6thMOY: Enes Kanter
1.GSW
2.SAS
3.LAC
4.POR
5.UTA
6.HOU
7.OKC
8.MIN
9.MEM
10.SAC
11.DEN
12.DAL
13.NOR
14.PHX
15.LAL
East
1.CLE
2.IND
3.BOS
4.TOR
5.ATL
6.CHA
7.WAS
8.CHI
9.MIA
10.NYK
11.ORL
12.DET
13.MIL
14.BKN
15.PHI
MVP: Kawhi Leonard
DPOY: Hassan Whiteside
ROY: Buddy Hield
MIP: Karl Anthony Towns
COY: Terry Stotts
6thMOY: Enes Kanter
Last edited:
Minnesota and Miami in the playoffs... now, I've seen everything.
reminder to people that Kyrie didn't make the playoffs until LeBron came. Technically.
reminder to people that Kyrie didn't make the playoffs until LeBron came. Technically.
The Eastern Conference was very hard to decide who goes where in my opinion - I think I might have put Miami up there too high and maybe I have underestimated the Bulls / New York a bit.
Do you really think Whiteside can carry that team to the playoffs by himself with little talent and shooting around him?
I understand the excitement behind the Wolves (That's a lie; that's every fucking year in fact) but Thibs can't fix talent and experience in one year.
I understand the excitement behind the Wolves (That's a lie; that's every fucking year in fact) but Thibs can't fix talent and experience in one year.
Yeah probably not now that you mention it; was only thinking bout Goran and Hassan when MIA came to mind, might have to slide them down and move CHI up 1. Didn't realize the minimal shooting there is in MIA with Dion, Richardson (INJ), Winslow and Tyler Johnson. Although I still believe in the MIN hype ( yeah i'm one of those guys )
*Blows a bubble* … Oh, yeah.
What a long summer it has been. Basketball finally returns and I can finally get visibly upset at my computer screen again.
We say goodbye to Kobe, Duncan, and Garnett… an era of basketball long gone. Vince Carter, Paul Pierce, Dirk Nowitzki, and Manu Ginobili will be headed out the door very soon as well.
This offseason had a lot of shifting. Durant has joined Lil’ B’s minions, Wade bolted for his hometown, New York snatched up Chicago’s core from the last seven years, Dwight Howard somehow thinks his postgame will improve in his hometown, and Horford is the best free-agent signing not talked about.
As usual before I start, I want to make the disclaimer that it is difficult to predict injuries and trades. These are the key factors in why teams make or miss the playoffs outside of offensive and defensive statistics.
Who is the favorite for MVP, by the way? I feel like Curry is going to drop a notch with the addition of Durant. LeBron James is a decent choice but at his age, he’s better off saving himself for the playoffs. I’d argue the best choices for MVP candidates are Harden and Westbrook. Davis could be a dark horse but I have my doubts on his club making the playoffs once again. Kawhi Leonard is a dark horse but I don’t feel like he’s as ball dominant as the top choices.
Reason I suspect Harden: D’Antoni has his hands on the best ball-handling scorer since Steve Nash. Houston is going to score and Harden playing point-guard means his numbers are going to skyrocket.
Westbrook has a decent shot but his efficiency is a tiny bit less than Harden’s. I also feel like he has less space to operate in and his game is more of a battering ram type of game where as Harden’s game is more crafty. I feel like in the end, craftiness wins over recklessness. I don’t see Westbrook having a very efficient year.
And without further ado, on to the Western Conference!
“The curse had to be removed for the simple fact that Kevin Durant has shown his humility by coming to the Warriors. Me being Lil B, I really feel like The Based God did it because The Based God is humble and very empathetic. Just from what I’ve seen, Kevin Durant has shown that he wants change” – Lil’ B
“Your team is so deep into rebuilding that the guy you were rebuilding from is back on your roster and contemplating retirement...” – Giannis1995 on Minnesota
“This post can be the most upvoted in this subs history and Memphis fans would still call it "underrated"- Fs316
(1) Golden State Warriors
(2) Los Angeles Clippers
(3) San Antonio Spurs
(4) Utah Jazz
(5) Portland Trailblazers
(6) Dallas Mavericks
(7) Houston Rockets
(8) Oklahoma City Thunder
The Western Conference hasn’t done as much shifting. Of the two conferences, they’re much more stable. The only major change is Durant’s movements. Everybody else is either retaining talent or shelling up weaknesses. There are only nine reasonable teams in my eyes who can make the playoffs.
Golden State once again tops off at the number one seed for a third consecutive year. The acquisition of Kevin Durant gives them the scariest offense this league will likely ever see. It will be nigh impossible to stop this team now. The potential mismatches from excessive switching, the hot shooting from all over the floor, the amount of passing that could generate from all five positions, and the ability to literally score efficiently from all over the floor. The only doubts I could possibly have about this team is their frontcourt depth. The basketball gods had to balance this roster out by having them sign friggin’ McGee and Pachulia. Pachulia can put in serious work even at his age, though. He rebounds to the best of his ability but he is most definitely not a banger. Golden State is clearly putting all their chips in a small-ball, pace-and-space offense with tons of switching and an undersized frontcourt. It will undoubtedly work in the regular season at least. Can they improve on their 73-9 record? I want to bet that they more than likely will not due to the adjustment period Durant will require with their offense.
Durant does add more than take away. Last post-season, he displayed amazing defensive ratings sat the four. Remember Golden State’s line-up of death with Green at Center? Meet version 2.0, and as far as I’m concerned, I don’t know if any team in history could beat that line-up straight up.
It’s going to be hard for this team to lose once they gel (I think it’ll take some adjusting to get used to the caliber of player Durant is). Honestly, I don’t see them losing their own game. There needs to be a severe contrast in how this team is beat. They need to be beaten inside to the extreme. Like, at an unprecedented level than we’ve ever seen before. I’m not so sure if there’s a team out there capable of that, but I’ll keep my eyes on any possible setbacks from this team.
Los Angeles is my pick for second seed. They’re here less because I think they’ll actually be great and more because of the diluted competition in the West this year. There simply isn’t that many great teams besides San Antonio that would fit in the next tier below Golden State. Los Angeles simply is the best-rounded as far as regular season records go. Paul and Griffin can both run the team in the case of either being injured. They still have great shooters and a defensive system that hasn’t failed them yet. They just.. haven’t gotten over that hump to the Conference Finals. They will forever lack depth at the three and I expect they will find some crazy deal this year that may finally net them the man they’re looking for.
They’ve had the Paul/Griffin/DeAndre (and arguably now Redick) core for far too long to just roll the dice again and hope for a different result. You certainly do not want Alan Anderson to start on your championship aspired roster.
Third seed goes to my beloved San Antonio. Gone is Duncan, the best player of the last era (stfu Kobies). You simply cannot replace the greatness and impact this man had for this team even last year. Gasol is… barely a sufficient replacement in my view. Y’know, there’s something defensively worrying about an Aldridge/Gasol frontcourt. This could totally go haywire and have San Antonio in the bottom-half of the playoff race. There are some trade rumors going around Aldridge’s name; I’m not sure what their front office would find suitable in that spot otherwise.
So, I’m just going to go ahead and say my third seed prediction for this team is heavily based on Kawhi getting the keys to the jeep. Parker is probably done, Ginobili is definitely done, and Aldridge is already on the trading block. I have no doubt in my mind Kawhi will shine great enough to have this team be third best. Even without Duncan and Diaw, this team can still maintain most of its historic defensive numbers they put up last regular season. The decline shouldn’t be as steep if they still plan to play inside-out. Gasol and Aldridge aren’t the most reliable defenders and rebounders especially at Gasol’s age, but when you have a Defensive Player of the Year on your roster, it may not matter.
Duncan’s PER last year was third best; almost tied with Parker at 16.9. He was important to the team but not tantamount to all top offensive and defensive ratings. Duncan was noticeable declining in all of his numbers, or a further decline this year I feel like would honestly be a wash. Understandably, his leadership will be missed; but there are some reports that he’s still hanging around town at least.
Gasol actually has better numbers than Duncan. That obviously isn’t the whole story, but his legs still haven’t left him just yet relative to our retiree. Perhaps in a more team-oriented system, Gasol’s defensive liability is harder to take advantage of. David Lee offers them flexibility off the bench offensively. With the way David West performed last year, I have zero reason to believe Lee will be a net loss.
Either way, Kawhi is the man now. Top guy in defensive win shares, near top guy in offensive win shares. This player is the real deal. He needs to maintain this efficiency of course for San Antonio to remain west elite. There is still a good chance this team could be in the bottom half but his contributions to this team’s ratings last year are so great, that I have little doubt they aren’t a top five team in the league.
This team… has a very high ceiling in my eyes. I was pretty close to declaring them second best in the West. Now, I can expect to get some hasty comments on my opinion about the potential of this team and I understand that. So, I’m just going to go ahead and say it: the biggest surprise of 2016-2017 this year will be… Utah.
This roster has a sweet, versatile set of guys. Joe Johnson, George Hill, Boris Diaw, Derrick Favors, Rudy Robert, Gordon Hayward; the roster is so flexible and talented that you could start virtually anybody on their roster. Yes, Shelvin Mack is not a bad guy to have as your starting guard. This team really feels like San Antonio or Atlanta two years ago.
Another thing of note about this team is that they are the anti-thesis of what Golden State is running. They refuse to play small. They are going to take your ass to the glass, my friend. And you know what? They have the absolute best chance to dethrone Golden State just based on match-ups alone.
Their preseason has been filled with injuries, so this sets them back a tad in terms of having a healthy training camp and preseason; but once this team gets everyone healthy and under the system, I see no reason why they can’t be west elite.
The team is a real force inside and with improved shooting from Johnson and Hill, I expect their scoring to get better. Rodney Hood had improved minutes and improved efficiency and scoring. At his age, he has a ton of upside potential. With the improved shooting and passers on the perimeter (Don’t forget, Diaw!), Hayward might rise to another level of stardom.
This team had serious problems assisting. Bottom three in both rate and percentage due to all the post-ups; but I’m willing to bet this is largely a result of their below-average shooters not fulfilling their role and the lack of playmaking; but fret no more: veteranship, passing, rebounding, defense, shooting, depth; please tell me why this team can’t potentially be second seed or a legitimate dark horse in all of this? Only reason I really have them at four is because their injury-filled preseason but you can bet I am on this hype train. They will be a force to be reckoned with. Guaransheed.
Next up is Portland. They’re honestly the only team remaining that I’d consider in its own tier. They’re not good enough to threaten a healthy contender but at the same time, they won’t struggle to make the playoffs. We had our doubts about them last year with the loss of Aldridge. Then they surprised everyone by having one of the best scoring backcourts in the league. They had a fairly solid offseason in the Turner and Ezeli signings.
Turner allows Lillard and McCollum to play more off the ball and take a little pressure off of them. Ezeli somewhat fortifies an otherwise frail defensive frontcourt. Potentially, they actually have nowhere to go but up; just not quite in the top three just yet. They have just enough skill to guarantee themselve. Three-point shooting, versatile wing defenders, and now a legitimate five. Oh, before I forget, Lillard is another great MVP dark horse.
This team just needs to improve their three-point defense. They’re above-average in all categories except this single one. I’m not sure if it’s mental or backcourt defense. Lillard and McCollum are not only a tad bit undersized, but are known for their defensive shortcomings. Perhaps Turner can take the pressure off enough for them to be better to chase some guys off the line.
Now, this next tier of teams I’m about to go over are what I consider fringe playoff teams in the West. What I mean by that is.. any of these teams can go from six to not making the playoffs entirely. I’m still going to rank them, however. I’m simply less confident in where they’ll end up; in some cases, even less confident they’ll be in the hunt at all.
Dallas … we gotta stop doing this at some point. The Rick Carlisle system has a good pedigree, though. Carlisle, Dirk, above-average point guard, shooters, and serviceable centers will always be a fringe playoff team. This may be Dirk’s last decent season, but Carlisle’s innovation is really what’s keeping him and his older teammates relevant this long. This coach simply knows how to get 100% out of any given roster.
His teammates this time around really aren’t that bad. In fact, it’s probably the best cast he’s had in a few years. Bogut is a great starting center who still carries solid defensive rebounding and block numbers. Deron Williams is at least serviceable. He doesn’t need to be the former top three point-guard we once thought he was, but he’s not 40-year-old Jason Kidd just yet. Curry can shoot, Matthews is two years ahead of his injury, and Barnes.. wait.. Harrison Barnes?
I mean, he’s an overpaid player and was the worst starter for Golden State by a longshot. I actually expect him to have a very, very inefficient shooting season. Sadly, the team will sink or float with this guy’s performance. Dallas has had their fair share of shitty small forwards all the way back to Josh Howard but I place this team in the playoffs in spite of a shitty performance by him. He rode the coat tails of the fluid system in Golden State and was pretty much only relied on to shoot open jumpers. Expect him to have quite the adjusting period in having a larger role now.
They don’t exactly need him to do that much. Just guard the best threes and shoot open jumpers at the four spot when they go small. He at least allows Dallas to be flexible with switches. Flexibility is everything in this new pace-and-space league. Right now, he’s forcing things, but Barnes isn’t the type of personality to play out his head.
This team overall got a tad bit more athletic and flexible with the addition of an excellent shooter in Curry. I see no reason for them to fall out the standings aside from a Dirk collapse; but his game isn’t exactly reliant on athleticism, so his decline will be much slower than we’re used to seeing from superstars.
Houston is a gamble to have in the playoffs. No matter how you slice it. Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon are defensively challenged and injury prone. Their only centers are Nene and Capela. D’Antoni is their coach.
The only question you really need to ask for Houston is can their defense be good enough to salvage 40-ish wins? We know their offense is going to be crazy. We know Harden will put up crazy numbers. What we don’t know is if this team has what it takes defensively because last season was a total mess… with Dwight Howard.
But even with last season’s mess.. they were still an eight seed. D’Antoni is far from a defensive-minded guy, but my gut instinct tells me that these guys can’t be worse than last year. I know Dwight Howard left but much of the problem for Houston last year was more mental than physical. I feel like this team will get a big enough offensive boost to salvage whatever potential defensive loss Howard will cause. Heck, who knows, maybe they’ll be better without him. We’ve seen crazier things happen. Howard had the best PER on the team (ironically, Capela virtually ties him), so it’s really a matter of what you think of Capela getting major minutes.
Morey ball is only as successful as the personnel. Can this personnel play Morey ball? If Anderson and Gordon aren’t catastrophes on defense and can hit open shots, they’ll always be in the game.
I have Oklahoma City just barely scratching their way into the playoffs over Memphis. These are the two teams I was essentially holding side-by-side in whether I’d have them in or not. My final decision simply rested on intangibles, and Memphis has a serious depth issue right now. Tony Allen should not be your starting shooting guard at age 35. Vince Carter should not be in the NBA anymore. Conley and Gasol feel like they could kill over any minute, and Parsons has been on and off the court for the last two years.
You could argue Oklahoma City has the edge of youth and talent, yet I don’t think the pieces they have really fit together. I feel like Westbrook is going to pull a Kobe and go for a worst efficiency record. They don’t have enough shooters on this team, so I feel like they’re easy to shut out. At least Memphis, even if they stick with their same style of basketball, has proven that it can still be a good enough success to be a fringe playoff team.
But that style could definitely die a slow death this year; their new coach, Fizdale, has made some interesting statements about their possible changes. Randolph is coming off the bench, and Gasol is possibly going to shoot threes. Memphis still lacks scoring, Randolph and Allen are old, and to expect a rookie head coach to make sense of this system in our pace-and-space modern NBA is a tall order. Oklahoma City still has starpower, youth with upside, and versatility (relative to Memphis, anyway).
It’s hard to peg how well a Westbrook-led team can perform, but it’s even harder to trust a Memphis team that started off terrible last year, is one injury away from having to start either two or three rookies or a 40-year-old man, and a rookie head coach way over his head.
I had faith in New Orleans last year, but man did they burn me. They didn’t really do too many notable changes. They don’t have good guard play and it doesn’t seem like Davis is going to have significant enough time at the five. This team has some serious point guard issues, and I gotta see it to believe it now. I’m not even sure if Davis having the best efficiency rating would be enough for them to be a fringe playoff team.
They grabbed Lance Stephenson. Is his career done with? I don’t want to believe it is but… can you trust the guy at this point?
Their problems last season weren’t really the offense; they were a bottom three defensive team in just about every shooting category, and strangely enough, this isn’t a good defensive rebounding. Nor do they protect the rim. Is Davis expanding all of his energy on offense? Bleh, until they surround him with some weapons… in either category be it offense or defense, this guy is stuck on an island.
We talk about Minnesota every year. Maybe next year. In due time. Give the youngsters time to evolve. Is this the year it finally happens?
Well, Thibodeau is the best upgade they’ve realistically had in a long time… but there are just too many young guys on this roster. Oklahoma City is the only team in recent memory to do the whole “young team full of draft picks to make the playoffs”. Other than KAT and Wiggins, I don’t expect anybody else on this team to hit a serious level of improvement. Only way this team becomes a fringe playoff possibility is if KAT breaks out ala Davis. I think he will; but not on Davis’ level just yet. Wiggins is great but not consistent enough yet. Guys like LaVine, Rubio, and Pekovic.. I feel like have pretty much hit or nearly hit what they’re going to give you. The average age of the most impactful players on this team is.. 21-ish. That’s not a good recipe for playoff status. Thibodeau needs a year to implement the culture he wants. I expect improvement, but not a 20 game jump in wins.
Some Minnesota hopefuls are a bit delusional if they think you can create a defensive identity or culture within a year. Well, you might want to point to Boston 2008 but they were a team of veterans. This is a team of youngins, and youngins take time.
Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe Thibodeau is that talented, but I think even if he were to give this team a smooth transition into a top ten defense, there is still little shooting on this roster and I’m not putting a team coached by Thibodeau in the top eight of the west if they’re bottom five in there point attempts and makes.
Like we’ve always said since forever: maybe next year.
I’ll admit, I almost gave into the Sacramento signing of Rondo and George Karl last year. They actually came as close to the playoffs at one point as they’ve ever been. Then, it went south.
This organization is still unstable. Cousins is still immature. The talent around him is still questionable. Ty Lawson has lost his marbles, so I can’t expect point guard play to be anything worthwhile. Rudy Gay has pretty much made little difference since he’s been here. I have zero reason to believe this team suddenly got what it takes. They’re top three in turnovers committed (lack of competent guard play), they commit the most personal fouls (Cousins), and they’re one of the worst teams guarding both the rim and the three-point line.
Their free agency signings don’t necessarily fix any of these things including their coach, and that’s about all I can offer for this team.
Everybody else in the West are rebuilding so.. I’m not going to waste your time with that.
The Eastern Conference is filled with so much mystery after two or three top teams. A lot of coaching and philosophy changes have been done. Much uncertainty is glossing over plenty of teams who’ve lost key guys or have injury concerns. This conference has steadily caught up with the West as far as strength, but the volatility of these teams still remains high.
“The only bright spot on the Hawks is on Dennis Schröder's head.” – LukeWalton4MVP
“Penn Station is located directly underneath Madison Square Garden, which is fantastic for noted train enthusiast Derrick Rose.” – LukeWalton4MVP
“Edward Snowden will come home before Kevin Durant does.” – rawman200k
(1) Cleveland Cavaliers
(2) Boston Celtics
(3) Toronto Raptors
(4) Indiana Pacers
(5) Atlanta Hawks
(6) Washington Wizards
(7) Detroit Pistons
(8) New York Knicks
The Eastern conference has always been the land of LeBron and it’s been going on for pretty much a decade just about. Whether he’s in Cleveland or Miami, it’s always a good bet for him to gun for the number one seed. He’s on the wrong side of 30 but this guy still has what it takes when it truly counts. His minutes have been steadily decreasing the past few years, so his regular season consistency of greatness is always at risk within the next regular season; however, Kyrie is still young and extremely talented. Even if LeBron sat a few games, this team is still good enough to dominate the Eastern Conference. I wish I could say more, but LeBron teams are usually self-explanatory in the regular season.
Boston, like Utah, is another underrated force I feel no one is truly talking about. In truth, they won free agency outside of Golden State. Horford isn’t a superstar, but he fits so perfectly with the mold of the team and what Stevens wants to run that this team is about to approach levels I feel will honestly rival the old big three. Increased space, passing and flexibility in the frontcourt is going to make this team a true monster offensively. I can already see Isaiah/Horford pick-and-roll in crunch time. This team didn’t do a terribly great job shooting threes last year, though. As well as they move the ball and defend, they lack outside shooting. This team still has a bit of a rebounding weakness, so I don’t expect them to seriously challenge Cleveland or anything. Their flexibility
You can always trust Toronto to have a pretty good regular season ever since their Lowry signing. After their performance last year in the playoffs, it makes sense to do your best to retain DeRozan. He’s not very efficient in scoring but there may come a day when he learns how to become better. They lose Biyombo after his inflated ego from his performance against Cleveland; but I honestly don’t think they lost anybody too major. Keep the same system running of Lowry running the offense and they should be fine. He’s coming off of a decent Olympic performance too. I don’t really like Sullinger but maybe he needed a change in environment. I expect this team to mostly be a wash in whether they improve or worsen. Expect them to be a two or three seed.
Indiana made some changes with their point guard. I don’t know if I necessarily agree it but I get the reasoning. George has great skill off the ball, and Monta Ellis is more of a scoring guard than a point guard. They both turned the ball over far too much last year, Jeff Teague gives them a sense of control. Teague can play to that up-tempo offense Bird has been wanting since last year. They’ll lose half a step in that position defensively, but offensively, I see improvement.
What signing doesn’t make sense, though? Jefferson. He is not an up-tempo player but if playing off the bench, I suppose it won’t be too damaging. I’m sure he could give them a few nights of high scoring that may make a couple of game differences in their overall wins.
What’s truly going to make this team sink or float is Turner. He has such a high upside but I’m not sure if he’s truly ready to be a full-time starting five. He certainly has what it takes but the lack of Vogel is troubling. McMillan is not known for defense, so I could easily see this team on the outside looking in if Turner and Jefferson actually turn out to be extremely disastrous on the defensive end. Thaddeus Young is somewhat of a decent safeguard to that…who I also want to mention.. isn’t exactly the type of guy to fit an up-tempo offense since he does not create as much space as the typical four. He’s definitely athletic and since Turner can shoot, maybe it won’t be too bad. Overall, the team’s construction is head scratching but George coming off of an impressive Olympics gives me confidence for placing them around the middle. Perhaps Vogel left enough of an influence that their defense remains intact and their offensive identity is further established.
The next pack of teams I’m about to cover is pretty much middle-tier. Any of the next five teams have a playoff shot. The only thing likely separating them is injury and close wins. They also have a bit of a mystery and volatility to them, so my choices from fifth seed down are more about intangibles than direct statistics.
Dwight Howard is 30. A really old 30, but if he’s mentally in the game and physically healthy, he’s still a presence inside. His ability to rebound and defend the rim is enough to get your defense outside of the bottom ten (Houston bedamned). If you actually have a cohesive, defensive system? You’re already above-average. This already gets you at .500 in the Eastern Conference.
Atlanta is sure to regress this year offensively. Well, that’s the way my thinking goes at least. Losing both Horford and Teague will cut ball movement significantly. Korver is 35. Howard is a blackhole on offense. I’ll say Atlanta’s seed will highly depend on how well of a point guard Schroeder is. Can he take care of the ball? Can he hit his open looks? Can he run an offense and get everybody involved? Can he make the right decisions? I think he has what it takes to play starter minutes. He’s going to have some rough times during the season but he at least has the physical gifts to be a capable two-way point.
Bazemore might have a bit of an upside. Atlanta’s bench is.. yecht. Okay, Delaney won’t be half bad, Humphries is okay, and… how is Tim Hardaway Jr. still in the league?
Bleh. This team is going to suffer offensively. They had an assist rate and percentage so admirable that the sudden change in ball-dominance due to Howard and Schroder is going to abruptly mess with this team. Only reason I have them up this high is because I trust Dwight’s durability and defensive presence more than the teams below him. Atlanta made the playoffs largely last year due to their defensive identity. An improved defense thanks to Howard should at least keep them middle-tier in my eyes.
Washington really screwed me over last year. I predicted a rise. No, I predicted John Wall to become a top point guard of the league. That came nowhere close to happening. That could still happen, though.
I think the hiring of Brooks is sneaky good. Some people rag on him for his offensive schemes and being carried on the backs of Westbrook and Durant; yet, he balanced their alpha personalities pretty decently. This is why I’m not all too worried about the Wall/Beal scuffle that seems to hover over this organization for months.
Speaking of Beal, he was mostly injured a good bit of last season, and they were a perfect .500. If both Wall and Beal are healthy for the majority of the games, they’re already above .500. Add in a good coaching change, some more continuity, another stretch 4, a defensive center (now out for a few weeks but hopefully he’ll play at least 60+ games), and in my eyes, a more concerted effort in actually picking up the pace offensively, there’s no reason this team logically couldn’t have home court advantage in the first round.
But this team is the most volatile team of the entire East. They could go from a number two seed if everything clicks and flows along the right way to bottom feeders due to some crazy injury or the incompetence of Brooks. So, it makes more sense to put them in this tier.
Honestly, if Brooks is any half-decent coach outside of Oklahoma City (which I think he is) and Beal plays at least 60+ games (which I think he will), they’ll nab a playoff spot. Defense hasn’t been a problem for this team for years. They just need to work into today’s pace-and-space NBA. They got the stretch fours to do it and a top backcourt to boot.
Detroit is so obviously Van Gundy’s town, and I’m seriously seeing flashbacks of the old Orlando. There’s just a serious lack of Turkoglu. Jackson is already injured and stated to be out at least a month, and that’s pretty much this team’s Turkoglu. Drummond is a beast inside but he’s not exactly prime Howard defensively. This team doesn’t seem to get many blocks or is top ten in opponent field goal categories so I wonder about his rim protection skills. Plus, his freethrowing shooting is actually way worse than his even when Howard’s was around 60%.
So, this team is really going to depend on how much Johnson, Caldwell-Pope, and Harris improve. It has to be in some area; historical long-distance shooting, forcing steals or individual defense, creating plays for others; I simply don’t see Jackson and Drummond being a dominant one-two punch over the course of 82 games. The collective skillset of these two just don’t sit with me the same way Turkoglu and Howard did.
I like their stretch fours and versatility on the wing. They just need to have some offensive threats outside of Drummond. He’s still young and hasn’t truly entered his prime yet (we said the same about Howard, y’know…), but you also have to wonder what path of the center is he more likely to take: the traditional, athletic and raw type ala Howard or finesse and complete type ala Duncan?
Remember when I said Washington was the most volatile team of the East? Allow me to make amends: New York is actually the most volatile team. I don’t know what the absolute fuck to think of these guys. If this starting line-up has everybody in their prime, it is an easy number one seed. One look at the starting line-up should tell you that not a single person looks too old to play. So, why shouldn’t they make the playoffs?
Because it’s New York.They’re essentially adding random pieces together and hoping it makes sense all under the guise of the Triangle Offense. This is arguably a super team. They even have some decent depth behind some positions. An injury could turn this whole thing south in a jiffy, though. Especially considering out of all the teams listed here, I feel like they need the most time together.
This team’s performance is going to depend on how well Hornacek does not run the triangle offense and get these guys to pick up the pace. New York actually wasn’t that terribly bad defensively last year. Their offense was bottom five! With Carmelo and Porzingas! There’s simply no excuse. They need to pick up that pace and join today’s NBA. The triangle offense will not help them do it. Thankfully, most reports seem to indicate that Hornacek is going to do what the fuck he wants. Jackson is smart but he knows he lacks leverage. He needs to win now, Carmelo is 32, and you’ve already gone through a couple of coaches as it is. Another firing would put him under heavy scrutiny, so I do expect Hornacek to give this team exactly what it needs.
This team could be the super team of the East and battle for a top seed or fall down to bottom feeder status with one or two injuries. I actually expect Rose to get injured at this point; but Jennings is actually a capable starter in his own right. Any other starter though could be a bit catastrophic especially early on in the year.
Porzingas is truly coming along great and his best flashes seem to be when he’s popping out for a three at center. This guy can run, too. He needs to be the key to this new early offense.
In the end, this team is a big mystery, but when you look at the seven teams below it, there’s no way they don’t make the playoffs based on what you know about the starters. No. Effin’. Way. Play this team fast, have Noah healthy, and shoot a decent clip from three and you’re at .500. Come on, New York. We’re giving it to you on a silver platter.
I love Charlotte. We’ve been through so much. I’m always rooting for them to accomplish something. Anything. Sadly, I can’t envision them repeating the same success they had last year.
They could totally make the playoffs, and my decision was based on whether I saw them better than Washington or Atlanta. Sadly, their systems and star power are a bit more proven. It’ll be an uphill battle for them. Washington is .500 with an injured Beal. Atlanta has one of the best individual defensive forces in the conference. Charlotte has… two borderline all-star guys we basically have to hope can shoot a decent enough percentage to even stand a chance.
Charlotte’s success last year has a lot do with record shooting from two guys in Kemba and Williams. It is my belief that they would have to emulate or at least come reasonably close to last year’s numbers. Kemba’s rise in efficiency has a lot to do with having other playmakers around him as well as playing with a stretch four who shot a record percentage himself. He went from 31% to 37% in threes and hit a career field goal percentage of 43%.
It is entirely possible for him to emulate those numbers of course but it’s more likely they regress. I’m more inclined to think the law of averages will rear its ugly head in when two or three players hit career highs all at once. In order for this team to make it to the next level or remain at the same level of efficiency they did last year, Kemba has to become a bonafide all-star.
No, I didn’t forget Kidd-Gilchrist. Having him back definitely puts their defense back up to arguably top five under Clifford’s system. Problem is, he’s essentially replacing Courtney Lee who was an above-average shooter. For what they get in additional defense, they lose in offensive efficiency. Players will dare him to shoot and clog up the lane for Batum and Kemba.
Getting rid of Jefferson was a nice change, though. Charlotte has finally rejected the slow, pounding 2-point baskets this guy created and is opting to for pick-and-roll and threes full-time. It’s now just a matter of can they make the shots and the plays.
Sessions and Hibbert aren’t terrible signings; they’re more like, signings to contain the bleeding from losing Lin and Jefferson’s scoring. Hibbert fortifies the defense… maybe? I’m not sure if he truly has a place in this small-ball league any longer; but he defends and rebounds and the contract isn’t huge, so it can’t hurt to have him around. Sessions is no Lin but he’s still yet another playmaker.
So, with all these things in mind, Kemba has to be slightly better than he was last year because the teams surrounding their tier are likely to improve or stagnate. I could be wrong about any possible regression in shooting and efficiency. Last year could be no fluke at all, and their improved shooting was a result of the system; but it just feels like betting on Kemba’s efficiency and Kidd-Gilchrist’s supposed x-factor feels more risky than just trusting the talent of New York, Dwight Howard’s durability, and Washington’s improved personnel and proven history.
But like I said, this middle tier of teams could arrange themselves in any possible way. My odd team out just happens to be the team that relied more on x-factors and the intangibles of the teams suspected to make it.
Don’t worry, Charlotte, I’m still rooting for you on the sidelines. You just... haven’t given me enough justification this year. Not even for a fanboy pick.
Let’s talk about Chicago. First off, this team isn’t making the playoffs. Second, Chicago’s Deep Dish ain’t shit.
I get it. Wade is a professional. He’s played with LeBron. Rondo is one of the smartest point guards of our generation… or was. Butler’s already played off the ball before. I still say this shit won’t work.
The usage rate of both Rondo and Wade are astronomically high, and truthfully, anybody in their right mind would assume this was Butler’s team. Add in a coach who failed to instill his offense all of last season and now he has to work with the worst shooting backcourt which also happens to have three alpha dog personalities. Rondo has a history of butting heads with coaches. Wade can’t play off the ball to save his life. Butler already openly expressed his dislike for Hoidberg.
Then they went and added Carter-Williams. I don’t think they’re even trying to win now.
Outside of Mirotic and McDermott, they don’t have reliable long-distance shooters. Butler can be streaky but I wouldn’t put him in the same category as the aforementioned.
Then when you look at their front court of Lopez, Gibson, and Porter… who are all a nice set of guys, but none of them can step outside 15-18 feet. That paint is going to be crowded; especially with four or five slashers on this roster.
Ugh, it’s just a mess. I just have no words for this team. Call it desperation to sell tickets. I’m sure the players know it.
Orlando had an interesting offseason. Oladipo for Ibaka. Then turn around and sign Biyambo to a ridiculous contract. Now their frontcourt is reloaded and their backcourt gets a little less depth.
Overall, I feel like everything’s a wash here unless someone on the wing (Payton, Fournier) has a breakout season. Not much I can say for a team that won’t make the playoffs but it’s interesting that they have Vogel there. Perhaps they’ll be a top ten defense? That would actually reasonably keep them in the hunt. Have a good streak here and there and an injury to fall your competition’s way and they could sneak in. Again, this is granted that Payton or Fournier become borderline all-stars.
Milwaukee could have had a shot if Middleton wasn’t estimated to be off the court for six months. I love Giannis at point but there is no point to it (pun intended) if you have no space. They did sign Dellavedova and Teletovic but this team’s offense is still going to be bottom ten. Maybe bottom five. Monroe is rumored to come off the bench now since they just now realized he can’t defend a lick. Parker should still have a nice season and hopefully improve but this team honestly isn’t going to make serious noise during the regular season unless they get some shooting.
I have nothing to say about Miami. Wade and Riley reached an impasse. Wade rebelled, and Bosh is unable to play for the year. How far can a Dragic/Whiteside pick-and-roll take you? Not to the playoffs. That’s what.
Wait, that’s too harsh. Dragic was a force to be reckoned with in Phoenix at one point; but those years were either with Nash or two or the crazy backcourt combination with Bledsoe and Thomas. I don’t envision this team to go anywhere; besides, it’s literally against their best interest. Miami has all the excuses and resources in the world to purposely tank. If they actually try to squeak into the playoffs, I consider that bad business.
That’s about all I can offer now. Season’s anew and here’s to hoping for another exciting year.
What a long summer it has been. Basketball finally returns and I can finally get visibly upset at my computer screen again.
We say goodbye to Kobe, Duncan, and Garnett… an era of basketball long gone. Vince Carter, Paul Pierce, Dirk Nowitzki, and Manu Ginobili will be headed out the door very soon as well.
This offseason had a lot of shifting. Durant has joined Lil’ B’s minions, Wade bolted for his hometown, New York snatched up Chicago’s core from the last seven years, Dwight Howard somehow thinks his postgame will improve in his hometown, and Horford is the best free-agent signing not talked about.
As usual before I start, I want to make the disclaimer that it is difficult to predict injuries and trades. These are the key factors in why teams make or miss the playoffs outside of offensive and defensive statistics.
Who is the favorite for MVP, by the way? I feel like Curry is going to drop a notch with the addition of Durant. LeBron James is a decent choice but at his age, he’s better off saving himself for the playoffs. I’d argue the best choices for MVP candidates are Harden and Westbrook. Davis could be a dark horse but I have my doubts on his club making the playoffs once again. Kawhi Leonard is a dark horse but I don’t feel like he’s as ball dominant as the top choices.
Reason I suspect Harden: D’Antoni has his hands on the best ball-handling scorer since Steve Nash. Houston is going to score and Harden playing point-guard means his numbers are going to skyrocket.
Westbrook has a decent shot but his efficiency is a tiny bit less than Harden’s. I also feel like he has less space to operate in and his game is more of a battering ram type of game where as Harden’s game is more crafty. I feel like in the end, craftiness wins over recklessness. I don’t see Westbrook having a very efficient year.
And without further ado, on to the Western Conference!
“The curse had to be removed for the simple fact that Kevin Durant has shown his humility by coming to the Warriors. Me being Lil B, I really feel like The Based God did it because The Based God is humble and very empathetic. Just from what I’ve seen, Kevin Durant has shown that he wants change” – Lil’ B
“Your team is so deep into rebuilding that the guy you were rebuilding from is back on your roster and contemplating retirement...” – Giannis1995 on Minnesota
“This post can be the most upvoted in this subs history and Memphis fans would still call it "underrated"- Fs316
(1) Golden State Warriors
(2) Los Angeles Clippers
(3) San Antonio Spurs
(4) Utah Jazz
(5) Portland Trailblazers
(6) Dallas Mavericks
(7) Houston Rockets
(8) Oklahoma City Thunder
The Western Conference hasn’t done as much shifting. Of the two conferences, they’re much more stable. The only major change is Durant’s movements. Everybody else is either retaining talent or shelling up weaknesses. There are only nine reasonable teams in my eyes who can make the playoffs.
Golden State once again tops off at the number one seed for a third consecutive year. The acquisition of Kevin Durant gives them the scariest offense this league will likely ever see. It will be nigh impossible to stop this team now. The potential mismatches from excessive switching, the hot shooting from all over the floor, the amount of passing that could generate from all five positions, and the ability to literally score efficiently from all over the floor. The only doubts I could possibly have about this team is their frontcourt depth. The basketball gods had to balance this roster out by having them sign friggin’ McGee and Pachulia. Pachulia can put in serious work even at his age, though. He rebounds to the best of his ability but he is most definitely not a banger. Golden State is clearly putting all their chips in a small-ball, pace-and-space offense with tons of switching and an undersized frontcourt. It will undoubtedly work in the regular season at least. Can they improve on their 73-9 record? I want to bet that they more than likely will not due to the adjustment period Durant will require with their offense.
Durant does add more than take away. Last post-season, he displayed amazing defensive ratings sat the four. Remember Golden State’s line-up of death with Green at Center? Meet version 2.0, and as far as I’m concerned, I don’t know if any team in history could beat that line-up straight up.
It’s going to be hard for this team to lose once they gel (I think it’ll take some adjusting to get used to the caliber of player Durant is). Honestly, I don’t see them losing their own game. There needs to be a severe contrast in how this team is beat. They need to be beaten inside to the extreme. Like, at an unprecedented level than we’ve ever seen before. I’m not so sure if there’s a team out there capable of that, but I’ll keep my eyes on any possible setbacks from this team.
Los Angeles is my pick for second seed. They’re here less because I think they’ll actually be great and more because of the diluted competition in the West this year. There simply isn’t that many great teams besides San Antonio that would fit in the next tier below Golden State. Los Angeles simply is the best-rounded as far as regular season records go. Paul and Griffin can both run the team in the case of either being injured. They still have great shooters and a defensive system that hasn’t failed them yet. They just.. haven’t gotten over that hump to the Conference Finals. They will forever lack depth at the three and I expect they will find some crazy deal this year that may finally net them the man they’re looking for.
They’ve had the Paul/Griffin/DeAndre (and arguably now Redick) core for far too long to just roll the dice again and hope for a different result. You certainly do not want Alan Anderson to start on your championship aspired roster.
Third seed goes to my beloved San Antonio. Gone is Duncan, the best player of the last era (stfu Kobies). You simply cannot replace the greatness and impact this man had for this team even last year. Gasol is… barely a sufficient replacement in my view. Y’know, there’s something defensively worrying about an Aldridge/Gasol frontcourt. This could totally go haywire and have San Antonio in the bottom-half of the playoff race. There are some trade rumors going around Aldridge’s name; I’m not sure what their front office would find suitable in that spot otherwise.
So, I’m just going to go ahead and say my third seed prediction for this team is heavily based on Kawhi getting the keys to the jeep. Parker is probably done, Ginobili is definitely done, and Aldridge is already on the trading block. I have no doubt in my mind Kawhi will shine great enough to have this team be third best. Even without Duncan and Diaw, this team can still maintain most of its historic defensive numbers they put up last regular season. The decline shouldn’t be as steep if they still plan to play inside-out. Gasol and Aldridge aren’t the most reliable defenders and rebounders especially at Gasol’s age, but when you have a Defensive Player of the Year on your roster, it may not matter.
Duncan’s PER last year was third best; almost tied with Parker at 16.9. He was important to the team but not tantamount to all top offensive and defensive ratings. Duncan was noticeable declining in all of his numbers, or a further decline this year I feel like would honestly be a wash. Understandably, his leadership will be missed; but there are some reports that he’s still hanging around town at least.
Gasol actually has better numbers than Duncan. That obviously isn’t the whole story, but his legs still haven’t left him just yet relative to our retiree. Perhaps in a more team-oriented system, Gasol’s defensive liability is harder to take advantage of. David Lee offers them flexibility off the bench offensively. With the way David West performed last year, I have zero reason to believe Lee will be a net loss.
Either way, Kawhi is the man now. Top guy in defensive win shares, near top guy in offensive win shares. This player is the real deal. He needs to maintain this efficiency of course for San Antonio to remain west elite. There is still a good chance this team could be in the bottom half but his contributions to this team’s ratings last year are so great, that I have little doubt they aren’t a top five team in the league.
This team… has a very high ceiling in my eyes. I was pretty close to declaring them second best in the West. Now, I can expect to get some hasty comments on my opinion about the potential of this team and I understand that. So, I’m just going to go ahead and say it: the biggest surprise of 2016-2017 this year will be… Utah.
This roster has a sweet, versatile set of guys. Joe Johnson, George Hill, Boris Diaw, Derrick Favors, Rudy Robert, Gordon Hayward; the roster is so flexible and talented that you could start virtually anybody on their roster. Yes, Shelvin Mack is not a bad guy to have as your starting guard. This team really feels like San Antonio or Atlanta two years ago.
Another thing of note about this team is that they are the anti-thesis of what Golden State is running. They refuse to play small. They are going to take your ass to the glass, my friend. And you know what? They have the absolute best chance to dethrone Golden State just based on match-ups alone.
Their preseason has been filled with injuries, so this sets them back a tad in terms of having a healthy training camp and preseason; but once this team gets everyone healthy and under the system, I see no reason why they can’t be west elite.
The team is a real force inside and with improved shooting from Johnson and Hill, I expect their scoring to get better. Rodney Hood had improved minutes and improved efficiency and scoring. At his age, he has a ton of upside potential. With the improved shooting and passers on the perimeter (Don’t forget, Diaw!), Hayward might rise to another level of stardom.
This team had serious problems assisting. Bottom three in both rate and percentage due to all the post-ups; but I’m willing to bet this is largely a result of their below-average shooters not fulfilling their role and the lack of playmaking; but fret no more: veteranship, passing, rebounding, defense, shooting, depth; please tell me why this team can’t potentially be second seed or a legitimate dark horse in all of this? Only reason I really have them at four is because their injury-filled preseason but you can bet I am on this hype train. They will be a force to be reckoned with. Guaransheed.
Next up is Portland. They’re honestly the only team remaining that I’d consider in its own tier. They’re not good enough to threaten a healthy contender but at the same time, they won’t struggle to make the playoffs. We had our doubts about them last year with the loss of Aldridge. Then they surprised everyone by having one of the best scoring backcourts in the league. They had a fairly solid offseason in the Turner and Ezeli signings.
Turner allows Lillard and McCollum to play more off the ball and take a little pressure off of them. Ezeli somewhat fortifies an otherwise frail defensive frontcourt. Potentially, they actually have nowhere to go but up; just not quite in the top three just yet. They have just enough skill to guarantee themselve. Three-point shooting, versatile wing defenders, and now a legitimate five. Oh, before I forget, Lillard is another great MVP dark horse.
This team just needs to improve their three-point defense. They’re above-average in all categories except this single one. I’m not sure if it’s mental or backcourt defense. Lillard and McCollum are not only a tad bit undersized, but are known for their defensive shortcomings. Perhaps Turner can take the pressure off enough for them to be better to chase some guys off the line.
Now, this next tier of teams I’m about to go over are what I consider fringe playoff teams in the West. What I mean by that is.. any of these teams can go from six to not making the playoffs entirely. I’m still going to rank them, however. I’m simply less confident in where they’ll end up; in some cases, even less confident they’ll be in the hunt at all.
Dallas … we gotta stop doing this at some point. The Rick Carlisle system has a good pedigree, though. Carlisle, Dirk, above-average point guard, shooters, and serviceable centers will always be a fringe playoff team. This may be Dirk’s last decent season, but Carlisle’s innovation is really what’s keeping him and his older teammates relevant this long. This coach simply knows how to get 100% out of any given roster.
His teammates this time around really aren’t that bad. In fact, it’s probably the best cast he’s had in a few years. Bogut is a great starting center who still carries solid defensive rebounding and block numbers. Deron Williams is at least serviceable. He doesn’t need to be the former top three point-guard we once thought he was, but he’s not 40-year-old Jason Kidd just yet. Curry can shoot, Matthews is two years ahead of his injury, and Barnes.. wait.. Harrison Barnes?
I mean, he’s an overpaid player and was the worst starter for Golden State by a longshot. I actually expect him to have a very, very inefficient shooting season. Sadly, the team will sink or float with this guy’s performance. Dallas has had their fair share of shitty small forwards all the way back to Josh Howard but I place this team in the playoffs in spite of a shitty performance by him. He rode the coat tails of the fluid system in Golden State and was pretty much only relied on to shoot open jumpers. Expect him to have quite the adjusting period in having a larger role now.
They don’t exactly need him to do that much. Just guard the best threes and shoot open jumpers at the four spot when they go small. He at least allows Dallas to be flexible with switches. Flexibility is everything in this new pace-and-space league. Right now, he’s forcing things, but Barnes isn’t the type of personality to play out his head.
This team overall got a tad bit more athletic and flexible with the addition of an excellent shooter in Curry. I see no reason for them to fall out the standings aside from a Dirk collapse; but his game isn’t exactly reliant on athleticism, so his decline will be much slower than we’re used to seeing from superstars.
Houston is a gamble to have in the playoffs. No matter how you slice it. Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon are defensively challenged and injury prone. Their only centers are Nene and Capela. D’Antoni is their coach.
The only question you really need to ask for Houston is can their defense be good enough to salvage 40-ish wins? We know their offense is going to be crazy. We know Harden will put up crazy numbers. What we don’t know is if this team has what it takes defensively because last season was a total mess… with Dwight Howard.
But even with last season’s mess.. they were still an eight seed. D’Antoni is far from a defensive-minded guy, but my gut instinct tells me that these guys can’t be worse than last year. I know Dwight Howard left but much of the problem for Houston last year was more mental than physical. I feel like this team will get a big enough offensive boost to salvage whatever potential defensive loss Howard will cause. Heck, who knows, maybe they’ll be better without him. We’ve seen crazier things happen. Howard had the best PER on the team (ironically, Capela virtually ties him), so it’s really a matter of what you think of Capela getting major minutes.
Morey ball is only as successful as the personnel. Can this personnel play Morey ball? If Anderson and Gordon aren’t catastrophes on defense and can hit open shots, they’ll always be in the game.
I have Oklahoma City just barely scratching their way into the playoffs over Memphis. These are the two teams I was essentially holding side-by-side in whether I’d have them in or not. My final decision simply rested on intangibles, and Memphis has a serious depth issue right now. Tony Allen should not be your starting shooting guard at age 35. Vince Carter should not be in the NBA anymore. Conley and Gasol feel like they could kill over any minute, and Parsons has been on and off the court for the last two years.
You could argue Oklahoma City has the edge of youth and talent, yet I don’t think the pieces they have really fit together. I feel like Westbrook is going to pull a Kobe and go for a worst efficiency record. They don’t have enough shooters on this team, so I feel like they’re easy to shut out. At least Memphis, even if they stick with their same style of basketball, has proven that it can still be a good enough success to be a fringe playoff team.
But that style could definitely die a slow death this year; their new coach, Fizdale, has made some interesting statements about their possible changes. Randolph is coming off the bench, and Gasol is possibly going to shoot threes. Memphis still lacks scoring, Randolph and Allen are old, and to expect a rookie head coach to make sense of this system in our pace-and-space modern NBA is a tall order. Oklahoma City still has starpower, youth with upside, and versatility (relative to Memphis, anyway).
It’s hard to peg how well a Westbrook-led team can perform, but it’s even harder to trust a Memphis team that started off terrible last year, is one injury away from having to start either two or three rookies or a 40-year-old man, and a rookie head coach way over his head.
I had faith in New Orleans last year, but man did they burn me. They didn’t really do too many notable changes. They don’t have good guard play and it doesn’t seem like Davis is going to have significant enough time at the five. This team has some serious point guard issues, and I gotta see it to believe it now. I’m not even sure if Davis having the best efficiency rating would be enough for them to be a fringe playoff team.
They grabbed Lance Stephenson. Is his career done with? I don’t want to believe it is but… can you trust the guy at this point?
Their problems last season weren’t really the offense; they were a bottom three defensive team in just about every shooting category, and strangely enough, this isn’t a good defensive rebounding. Nor do they protect the rim. Is Davis expanding all of his energy on offense? Bleh, until they surround him with some weapons… in either category be it offense or defense, this guy is stuck on an island.
We talk about Minnesota every year. Maybe next year. In due time. Give the youngsters time to evolve. Is this the year it finally happens?
Well, Thibodeau is the best upgade they’ve realistically had in a long time… but there are just too many young guys on this roster. Oklahoma City is the only team in recent memory to do the whole “young team full of draft picks to make the playoffs”. Other than KAT and Wiggins, I don’t expect anybody else on this team to hit a serious level of improvement. Only way this team becomes a fringe playoff possibility is if KAT breaks out ala Davis. I think he will; but not on Davis’ level just yet. Wiggins is great but not consistent enough yet. Guys like LaVine, Rubio, and Pekovic.. I feel like have pretty much hit or nearly hit what they’re going to give you. The average age of the most impactful players on this team is.. 21-ish. That’s not a good recipe for playoff status. Thibodeau needs a year to implement the culture he wants. I expect improvement, but not a 20 game jump in wins.
Some Minnesota hopefuls are a bit delusional if they think you can create a defensive identity or culture within a year. Well, you might want to point to Boston 2008 but they were a team of veterans. This is a team of youngins, and youngins take time.
Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe Thibodeau is that talented, but I think even if he were to give this team a smooth transition into a top ten defense, there is still little shooting on this roster and I’m not putting a team coached by Thibodeau in the top eight of the west if they’re bottom five in there point attempts and makes.
Like we’ve always said since forever: maybe next year.
I’ll admit, I almost gave into the Sacramento signing of Rondo and George Karl last year. They actually came as close to the playoffs at one point as they’ve ever been. Then, it went south.
This organization is still unstable. Cousins is still immature. The talent around him is still questionable. Ty Lawson has lost his marbles, so I can’t expect point guard play to be anything worthwhile. Rudy Gay has pretty much made little difference since he’s been here. I have zero reason to believe this team suddenly got what it takes. They’re top three in turnovers committed (lack of competent guard play), they commit the most personal fouls (Cousins), and they’re one of the worst teams guarding both the rim and the three-point line.
Their free agency signings don’t necessarily fix any of these things including their coach, and that’s about all I can offer for this team.
Everybody else in the West are rebuilding so.. I’m not going to waste your time with that.
The Eastern Conference is filled with so much mystery after two or three top teams. A lot of coaching and philosophy changes have been done. Much uncertainty is glossing over plenty of teams who’ve lost key guys or have injury concerns. This conference has steadily caught up with the West as far as strength, but the volatility of these teams still remains high.
“The only bright spot on the Hawks is on Dennis Schröder's head.” – LukeWalton4MVP
“Penn Station is located directly underneath Madison Square Garden, which is fantastic for noted train enthusiast Derrick Rose.” – LukeWalton4MVP
“Edward Snowden will come home before Kevin Durant does.” – rawman200k
(1) Cleveland Cavaliers
(2) Boston Celtics
(3) Toronto Raptors
(4) Indiana Pacers
(5) Atlanta Hawks
(6) Washington Wizards
(7) Detroit Pistons
(8) New York Knicks
The Eastern conference has always been the land of LeBron and it’s been going on for pretty much a decade just about. Whether he’s in Cleveland or Miami, it’s always a good bet for him to gun for the number one seed. He’s on the wrong side of 30 but this guy still has what it takes when it truly counts. His minutes have been steadily decreasing the past few years, so his regular season consistency of greatness is always at risk within the next regular season; however, Kyrie is still young and extremely talented. Even if LeBron sat a few games, this team is still good enough to dominate the Eastern Conference. I wish I could say more, but LeBron teams are usually self-explanatory in the regular season.
Boston, like Utah, is another underrated force I feel no one is truly talking about. In truth, they won free agency outside of Golden State. Horford isn’t a superstar, but he fits so perfectly with the mold of the team and what Stevens wants to run that this team is about to approach levels I feel will honestly rival the old big three. Increased space, passing and flexibility in the frontcourt is going to make this team a true monster offensively. I can already see Isaiah/Horford pick-and-roll in crunch time. This team didn’t do a terribly great job shooting threes last year, though. As well as they move the ball and defend, they lack outside shooting. This team still has a bit of a rebounding weakness, so I don’t expect them to seriously challenge Cleveland or anything. Their flexibility
You can always trust Toronto to have a pretty good regular season ever since their Lowry signing. After their performance last year in the playoffs, it makes sense to do your best to retain DeRozan. He’s not very efficient in scoring but there may come a day when he learns how to become better. They lose Biyombo after his inflated ego from his performance against Cleveland; but I honestly don’t think they lost anybody too major. Keep the same system running of Lowry running the offense and they should be fine. He’s coming off of a decent Olympic performance too. I don’t really like Sullinger but maybe he needed a change in environment. I expect this team to mostly be a wash in whether they improve or worsen. Expect them to be a two or three seed.
Indiana made some changes with their point guard. I don’t know if I necessarily agree it but I get the reasoning. George has great skill off the ball, and Monta Ellis is more of a scoring guard than a point guard. They both turned the ball over far too much last year, Jeff Teague gives them a sense of control. Teague can play to that up-tempo offense Bird has been wanting since last year. They’ll lose half a step in that position defensively, but offensively, I see improvement.
What signing doesn’t make sense, though? Jefferson. He is not an up-tempo player but if playing off the bench, I suppose it won’t be too damaging. I’m sure he could give them a few nights of high scoring that may make a couple of game differences in their overall wins.
What’s truly going to make this team sink or float is Turner. He has such a high upside but I’m not sure if he’s truly ready to be a full-time starting five. He certainly has what it takes but the lack of Vogel is troubling. McMillan is not known for defense, so I could easily see this team on the outside looking in if Turner and Jefferson actually turn out to be extremely disastrous on the defensive end. Thaddeus Young is somewhat of a decent safeguard to that…who I also want to mention.. isn’t exactly the type of guy to fit an up-tempo offense since he does not create as much space as the typical four. He’s definitely athletic and since Turner can shoot, maybe it won’t be too bad. Overall, the team’s construction is head scratching but George coming off of an impressive Olympics gives me confidence for placing them around the middle. Perhaps Vogel left enough of an influence that their defense remains intact and their offensive identity is further established.
The next pack of teams I’m about to cover is pretty much middle-tier. Any of the next five teams have a playoff shot. The only thing likely separating them is injury and close wins. They also have a bit of a mystery and volatility to them, so my choices from fifth seed down are more about intangibles than direct statistics.
Dwight Howard is 30. A really old 30, but if he’s mentally in the game and physically healthy, he’s still a presence inside. His ability to rebound and defend the rim is enough to get your defense outside of the bottom ten (Houston bedamned). If you actually have a cohesive, defensive system? You’re already above-average. This already gets you at .500 in the Eastern Conference.
Atlanta is sure to regress this year offensively. Well, that’s the way my thinking goes at least. Losing both Horford and Teague will cut ball movement significantly. Korver is 35. Howard is a blackhole on offense. I’ll say Atlanta’s seed will highly depend on how well of a point guard Schroeder is. Can he take care of the ball? Can he hit his open looks? Can he run an offense and get everybody involved? Can he make the right decisions? I think he has what it takes to play starter minutes. He’s going to have some rough times during the season but he at least has the physical gifts to be a capable two-way point.
Bazemore might have a bit of an upside. Atlanta’s bench is.. yecht. Okay, Delaney won’t be half bad, Humphries is okay, and… how is Tim Hardaway Jr. still in the league?
Bleh. This team is going to suffer offensively. They had an assist rate and percentage so admirable that the sudden change in ball-dominance due to Howard and Schroder is going to abruptly mess with this team. Only reason I have them up this high is because I trust Dwight’s durability and defensive presence more than the teams below him. Atlanta made the playoffs largely last year due to their defensive identity. An improved defense thanks to Howard should at least keep them middle-tier in my eyes.
Washington really screwed me over last year. I predicted a rise. No, I predicted John Wall to become a top point guard of the league. That came nowhere close to happening. That could still happen, though.
I think the hiring of Brooks is sneaky good. Some people rag on him for his offensive schemes and being carried on the backs of Westbrook and Durant; yet, he balanced their alpha personalities pretty decently. This is why I’m not all too worried about the Wall/Beal scuffle that seems to hover over this organization for months.
Speaking of Beal, he was mostly injured a good bit of last season, and they were a perfect .500. If both Wall and Beal are healthy for the majority of the games, they’re already above .500. Add in a good coaching change, some more continuity, another stretch 4, a defensive center (now out for a few weeks but hopefully he’ll play at least 60+ games), and in my eyes, a more concerted effort in actually picking up the pace offensively, there’s no reason this team logically couldn’t have home court advantage in the first round.
But this team is the most volatile team of the entire East. They could go from a number two seed if everything clicks and flows along the right way to bottom feeders due to some crazy injury or the incompetence of Brooks. So, it makes more sense to put them in this tier.
Honestly, if Brooks is any half-decent coach outside of Oklahoma City (which I think he is) and Beal plays at least 60+ games (which I think he will), they’ll nab a playoff spot. Defense hasn’t been a problem for this team for years. They just need to work into today’s pace-and-space NBA. They got the stretch fours to do it and a top backcourt to boot.
Detroit is so obviously Van Gundy’s town, and I’m seriously seeing flashbacks of the old Orlando. There’s just a serious lack of Turkoglu. Jackson is already injured and stated to be out at least a month, and that’s pretty much this team’s Turkoglu. Drummond is a beast inside but he’s not exactly prime Howard defensively. This team doesn’t seem to get many blocks or is top ten in opponent field goal categories so I wonder about his rim protection skills. Plus, his freethrowing shooting is actually way worse than his even when Howard’s was around 60%.
So, this team is really going to depend on how much Johnson, Caldwell-Pope, and Harris improve. It has to be in some area; historical long-distance shooting, forcing steals or individual defense, creating plays for others; I simply don’t see Jackson and Drummond being a dominant one-two punch over the course of 82 games. The collective skillset of these two just don’t sit with me the same way Turkoglu and Howard did.
I like their stretch fours and versatility on the wing. They just need to have some offensive threats outside of Drummond. He’s still young and hasn’t truly entered his prime yet (we said the same about Howard, y’know…), but you also have to wonder what path of the center is he more likely to take: the traditional, athletic and raw type ala Howard or finesse and complete type ala Duncan?
Remember when I said Washington was the most volatile team of the East? Allow me to make amends: New York is actually the most volatile team. I don’t know what the absolute fuck to think of these guys. If this starting line-up has everybody in their prime, it is an easy number one seed. One look at the starting line-up should tell you that not a single person looks too old to play. So, why shouldn’t they make the playoffs?
Because it’s New York.They’re essentially adding random pieces together and hoping it makes sense all under the guise of the Triangle Offense. This is arguably a super team. They even have some decent depth behind some positions. An injury could turn this whole thing south in a jiffy, though. Especially considering out of all the teams listed here, I feel like they need the most time together.
This team’s performance is going to depend on how well Hornacek does not run the triangle offense and get these guys to pick up the pace. New York actually wasn’t that terribly bad defensively last year. Their offense was bottom five! With Carmelo and Porzingas! There’s simply no excuse. They need to pick up that pace and join today’s NBA. The triangle offense will not help them do it. Thankfully, most reports seem to indicate that Hornacek is going to do what the fuck he wants. Jackson is smart but he knows he lacks leverage. He needs to win now, Carmelo is 32, and you’ve already gone through a couple of coaches as it is. Another firing would put him under heavy scrutiny, so I do expect Hornacek to give this team exactly what it needs.
This team could be the super team of the East and battle for a top seed or fall down to bottom feeder status with one or two injuries. I actually expect Rose to get injured at this point; but Jennings is actually a capable starter in his own right. Any other starter though could be a bit catastrophic especially early on in the year.
Porzingas is truly coming along great and his best flashes seem to be when he’s popping out for a three at center. This guy can run, too. He needs to be the key to this new early offense.
In the end, this team is a big mystery, but when you look at the seven teams below it, there’s no way they don’t make the playoffs based on what you know about the starters. No. Effin’. Way. Play this team fast, have Noah healthy, and shoot a decent clip from three and you’re at .500. Come on, New York. We’re giving it to you on a silver platter.
I love Charlotte. We’ve been through so much. I’m always rooting for them to accomplish something. Anything. Sadly, I can’t envision them repeating the same success they had last year.
They could totally make the playoffs, and my decision was based on whether I saw them better than Washington or Atlanta. Sadly, their systems and star power are a bit more proven. It’ll be an uphill battle for them. Washington is .500 with an injured Beal. Atlanta has one of the best individual defensive forces in the conference. Charlotte has… two borderline all-star guys we basically have to hope can shoot a decent enough percentage to even stand a chance.
Charlotte’s success last year has a lot do with record shooting from two guys in Kemba and Williams. It is my belief that they would have to emulate or at least come reasonably close to last year’s numbers. Kemba’s rise in efficiency has a lot to do with having other playmakers around him as well as playing with a stretch four who shot a record percentage himself. He went from 31% to 37% in threes and hit a career field goal percentage of 43%.
It is entirely possible for him to emulate those numbers of course but it’s more likely they regress. I’m more inclined to think the law of averages will rear its ugly head in when two or three players hit career highs all at once. In order for this team to make it to the next level or remain at the same level of efficiency they did last year, Kemba has to become a bonafide all-star.
No, I didn’t forget Kidd-Gilchrist. Having him back definitely puts their defense back up to arguably top five under Clifford’s system. Problem is, he’s essentially replacing Courtney Lee who was an above-average shooter. For what they get in additional defense, they lose in offensive efficiency. Players will dare him to shoot and clog up the lane for Batum and Kemba.
Getting rid of Jefferson was a nice change, though. Charlotte has finally rejected the slow, pounding 2-point baskets this guy created and is opting to for pick-and-roll and threes full-time. It’s now just a matter of can they make the shots and the plays.
Sessions and Hibbert aren’t terrible signings; they’re more like, signings to contain the bleeding from losing Lin and Jefferson’s scoring. Hibbert fortifies the defense… maybe? I’m not sure if he truly has a place in this small-ball league any longer; but he defends and rebounds and the contract isn’t huge, so it can’t hurt to have him around. Sessions is no Lin but he’s still yet another playmaker.
So, with all these things in mind, Kemba has to be slightly better than he was last year because the teams surrounding their tier are likely to improve or stagnate. I could be wrong about any possible regression in shooting and efficiency. Last year could be no fluke at all, and their improved shooting was a result of the system; but it just feels like betting on Kemba’s efficiency and Kidd-Gilchrist’s supposed x-factor feels more risky than just trusting the talent of New York, Dwight Howard’s durability, and Washington’s improved personnel and proven history.
But like I said, this middle tier of teams could arrange themselves in any possible way. My odd team out just happens to be the team that relied more on x-factors and the intangibles of the teams suspected to make it.
Don’t worry, Charlotte, I’m still rooting for you on the sidelines. You just... haven’t given me enough justification this year. Not even for a fanboy pick.
Let’s talk about Chicago. First off, this team isn’t making the playoffs. Second, Chicago’s Deep Dish ain’t shit.
I get it. Wade is a professional. He’s played with LeBron. Rondo is one of the smartest point guards of our generation… or was. Butler’s already played off the ball before. I still say this shit won’t work.
The usage rate of both Rondo and Wade are astronomically high, and truthfully, anybody in their right mind would assume this was Butler’s team. Add in a coach who failed to instill his offense all of last season and now he has to work with the worst shooting backcourt which also happens to have three alpha dog personalities. Rondo has a history of butting heads with coaches. Wade can’t play off the ball to save his life. Butler already openly expressed his dislike for Hoidberg.
Then they went and added Carter-Williams. I don’t think they’re even trying to win now.
Outside of Mirotic and McDermott, they don’t have reliable long-distance shooters. Butler can be streaky but I wouldn’t put him in the same category as the aforementioned.
Then when you look at their front court of Lopez, Gibson, and Porter… who are all a nice set of guys, but none of them can step outside 15-18 feet. That paint is going to be crowded; especially with four or five slashers on this roster.
Ugh, it’s just a mess. I just have no words for this team. Call it desperation to sell tickets. I’m sure the players know it.
Orlando had an interesting offseason. Oladipo for Ibaka. Then turn around and sign Biyambo to a ridiculous contract. Now their frontcourt is reloaded and their backcourt gets a little less depth.
Overall, I feel like everything’s a wash here unless someone on the wing (Payton, Fournier) has a breakout season. Not much I can say for a team that won’t make the playoffs but it’s interesting that they have Vogel there. Perhaps they’ll be a top ten defense? That would actually reasonably keep them in the hunt. Have a good streak here and there and an injury to fall your competition’s way and they could sneak in. Again, this is granted that Payton or Fournier become borderline all-stars.
Milwaukee could have had a shot if Middleton wasn’t estimated to be off the court for six months. I love Giannis at point but there is no point to it (pun intended) if you have no space. They did sign Dellavedova and Teletovic but this team’s offense is still going to be bottom ten. Maybe bottom five. Monroe is rumored to come off the bench now since they just now realized he can’t defend a lick. Parker should still have a nice season and hopefully improve but this team honestly isn’t going to make serious noise during the regular season unless they get some shooting.
I have nothing to say about Miami. Wade and Riley reached an impasse. Wade rebelled, and Bosh is unable to play for the year. How far can a Dragic/Whiteside pick-and-roll take you? Not to the playoffs. That’s what.
Wait, that’s too harsh. Dragic was a force to be reckoned with in Phoenix at one point; but those years were either with Nash or two or the crazy backcourt combination with Bledsoe and Thomas. I don’t envision this team to go anywhere; besides, it’s literally against their best interest. Miami has all the excuses and resources in the world to purposely tank. If they actually try to squeak into the playoffs, I consider that bad business.
That’s about all I can offer now. Season’s anew and here’s to hoping for another exciting year.
LeBron James notches a triple double in his 1st game of the season and Kyrie drops 29.
The Cavs are amazing
The Cavs are amazing
Well...shit lmfao - Might put SAS as the #1 Seed after this
nah you can't do that bruh. no changes after the first game.
Ahhh...taste that? That's what fine wine tastes like. Spurs and Pop...Spurs and Pop...
Lol not changing it; just second-guessing my predictions at the moment haha - obviously can't change it
Add DeMar DeRozan to that list as well holy shit
The season just started and everyone are having big games; holy fuck
edit; shit harden has 9ast by the end of the 1st quarter lmfao
edit; shit harden has 9ast by the end of the 1st quarter lmfao
