Pokemon Scarlet & Violet - 18th Nov 2022! **OFFICIAL INFO ONLY**

Feel free to correct me if I am wrong, but I thought this thread was for oficially revealed info only? As in, rumours and leaks and such wouldn't be here?

Even with Khu's riddles being pretty dry "info" that tells us nothing and leaves everything up for interpretation, idt this is the place for rumour talk
I think the mods said earlier to specifically not discuss Khu's riddles so I guess there's just nowhere on smogon to actively talk about them.
 
Honestly, I'm pretty cool with how Legendaries have been working in the past 2 gens. With the exception of the Regis/Birds, every SwSh Legend was core to either a game or a DLC plot. That's good, that's what a Legendary Poke deserves.

Zacian/Zamazenta/Eternatus for SwSw
Kubfu/Urshifu for Isle of Armor
Calyrex/Glastrier/Spectrier for Crown Tundra
Eternatus for Legends:Arceus

And in Sun/Moon, the only legends were the 4 Tapus, Lunala/Songaleo line, Necrozma, and technically Type: Null/Silvally. Again, all of those got plenty of screentime and are appropriately memorable(though the Tapus definitely could have done with more attention).

I'm hoping they keep that up. Give us the 2 that have been revealed, a Trio somewhere, and then move on. No need to spam legends the way some generations do.

...oh god. Wild speculation ahead:
So it's (theoretically) open world, right? What if they've subdivided the map into ~5 regions*, each with a plotline and a couple gyms, and at the end of each middle region is a minor legendary. That maps perfectly to a trio, and would fit how they like to build things.

*Tutorial-gym 1(no legend), gym 2/3, gym 4/5, gym 6/7, gym 8/evil team final base/victory road/catch box legend/E4
 

NealIRC

Banned deucer.
Okay I'm gonna talk about haunted houses, in this Pokemon world we not have a haunted house in both the video games, and the anime, at the same time.

The Pokemon Tower in Lavender Town is a haunted house in the anime, but in the games, it is a public "indoor cemetery." Which Westerners are not used to.

Then the other way around, the Old Chateau in Eterna Forest is a haunted house in the video games, but in the anime, it is put in Canalave City, and not a haunted house. The episode just had a power outage so Ash saw all the Rotom forms.

No haunted houses in Hoenn. Gen 5 had a Litwick mansion in the anime but it doesn't exist in the video games. No haunted house in B/W but there is 1 in B2/W2 (though 2 trainers are there battleable).

I loved the Old Chateau in Eterna Forest - the 1st fl was big and the 2nd fl was big, but then, no basement. Whereas the 1 in B2/W2 had a small 1st and 2nd fl, but it did have a basement. A library-basement.

No haunted houses in Kalos, except for 1 where an old man lives (and no wild pokemon in it). Only an abandoned thrift mart in Alola. No haunted houses in Galar. Didn't check on the anime yet.

Of interesting note Sinnoh video games has both a haunted house and a "indoor cemetery" but I don't care about the 2nd.

So here's hoping for a haunted house in Scarlet/Violet and preferably where it is 1 in the anime too. I will also go for, an abandoned castle or abandoned dungeon, with wild pokemon roaming. I was hoping Galar would have it.
 
Man, this post is gigantic. I went kinda nuts writing this, pardon the word vomit. There's probably something I forgot to expand on fully because I was jumping around so much, pardon weird cliffhangers I'll elaborate on them if needed.

Anyway, I want to look at Pokemon I think won't be in SV's dex but probably will be in SV.

Looking at SWSH 1.0's Inaccessible Pokemon to Parse Trends for SV's Pokemon Inclusions

I was thinking about the initial crop of ~430 Pokemon we got when Sword and Shield first came out. Specifically, I wanted to pay attention to the Pokemon outside the Galar Dex, Pokemon you either couldn't interact with or were very likely not to interact with before Pokemon Home's launch. That's a pretty interesting crop of Pokemon! They're Pokemon so important, they felt the need to put them in the game even if most of the casual playerbase won't ever interact with them! That's a pretty good indication there are some reasons why these Pokemon are getting extra attention, and those philosophies might very well carry over to SV. Let's take a look at that and see if there are any trends we can gauge!

Sword and Shield went out of their way to add these Pokemon to the roster despite being completely inaccessible without transfers:

>>Pokemon Outside the Galar Dex in SWSH 1.0<<
:Bulbasaur:Bulbasaur Family
:Squirtle:Squirtle Family
:Mewtwo: Mewtwo
:Mew: Mew*
:Celebi: Celebi
:Jirachi: Jirachi
:Cobalion::Terrakion::Virizion: The Swords of Justice Trio
:Reshiram:Reshiram
:Zekrom:Zekrom
:Kyurem:Kyurem
:Keldeo: Keldeo
:rowlet::litten::popplio:The Alolan Starter Families
:Solgaleo::Lunala:Cosmog Family
:Necrozma:Necrozma
:Marshadow:Marshadow
:Zeraora:Zeraora


*Mew is still accessible in base SWSH without Home through the Pokeball Controller but more on that later

There are a few trends in here I think stand out. In particular, I think most of these inclusions revolve around one central premise:

Welcome Returning Players Back, Keep Them Invested, Make Hardcore fans.

Not alienating people from game to game is a challenge. Doing that while also finally cutting the dex size is a challenge. If you are on Smogon reading this, you are a very entrenched player who'll probably feel a bit of disappointment with a smaller Pokemon roster, but will still be pretty deeply attached to the franchise.

What about someone fairly newer to the franchise? What if they picked up Sun and Moon or LGPE and want to play the new game? Having some of the most precious Pokemon they've spent the most time with in older adventures feels important in keeping them invested. I felt some major whiplash when most of my favorites from Gen 1 and 2 weren't in Gen 3. I spend more time playing Silver than Sapphire in 2002, and my interest in the series didn't really recover until Bayleef and the Johto pokemon I loved came back in Coliseum. Cushioning that blow is hard, but an excellent way to soften it is keeping your dearest partners, or what's likely to be most players' dearest partners, around for the next ride.

Obviously, what Pokemon we bond to is a bit scattershot and can depend on so many factors and individual experiences. That said, there are a few predictable features on the road with standout playthrough-defining Pokemon. Let's look at these inclusions and distill these into a few principles to use to make a list of likely returning Pokemon!

1) Keep your first buddy: Starters! I think most every kid holds their starter dear. In the older games, it's your level 70 beatstick while you drag around a weird ensemble of under leveled pokemon. In 2019, I had kids at our pokemon league that felt bad taking their starters off of their pvp teams for casual battles. Kids get pretty close with their cool little dude and being able to use it, or NOT being able to use it, feels like a deciding factor in keeping some folks on board. I feel this is pretty solid grounds for explaining why the Alola starters are back at DLC 0.

Bulbasaur and Squirtle are a little rockier. While they're starters from the most recent pokemon game at the time of SWSH, they're not actually, you know, the starters in the most recent Pokemon game. I'll go into them just a bit later.

2) Keep your reward for a playthrough well done: Continuing on with that theme of making players who played the last game feel like there's solid carryover even in the face of roster cuts, keeping the cover legendaries in is a great move. You played through Sun or Moon and got your big legendary. You played through USUM and got your Necrozma. You trekked through Cerulean cave and caught a Mewtwo. Now you get to keep it and use it even more in the next game!

3) Keep your special mythical rewards: Mythical Pokemon are money. Owning one's not required for dex purposes and it's almost always because they've got a slight pay-to-win taintedness to them. Making your customer feel like they wasted money on a movie ticket or a controller or a game release is big feel bad, so preserving that is important. Showing them that enjoying a Pokemon experience rewards them with a cool gamepiece for years to come can have some serious positive impact.

Quick anecdote: I for one never bought LGPE. I probably would have never played it if it weren't for Meltan making me charge through it. If I didn't borrow the game from a friend, or if I were a whiny kid asking their parents, I probably might have bought LGPE at some point for the sake of Pokedex completion. Pokemon like this have draw. Including them is important. Hell, I know some folks who bought that stupid pokeball controller twice to get another mew in SWSH! If this is a trend they see in multiple consumers, these particular Pokemon are important inclusions!

A big chunk of these mythical Pokemon fit this bill. Mew got shilled by reggie at E3 a year prior and keeping that accessory alive for SWSH is a payday. Marshadow and Zerora put butts in seats in japan. Celebi is a much loser fit into the mold, especially given that Lugia and Ho-oh aren't in to be encapsulated in the "playthrough well done" part. That said, given it was the driving selling point behind the crystal vc release, I'm willing to include it here. Jirachi is... well, it's a bit of a loose fit for later.

The only notable emission from the list of Gen 7 mythicals here is Magearna, who existed as a pre-release hype pokemon akin to Manaphy or Zoroark. Honestly though, the fact Magearna is a permanent fixture of SM and USUM and isn't attached to any early adapter whatever or some incentive to buy a game without any other new Pokemon (Meltan) I feel is good enough reason not to bring it over initially.

Note that Jirachi and Keldeo don't fit under here at all. More on them later.

The above three I believe are really solid patterns you can grok from the DLC 0 inclusions in SWSH. The next two are on what I think are less stable grounds.

4) Completing cycles seems important: Remember the week-ish before the datamine where we saw the whole Pokdex and saw Charmander but no Bulbasaur and Squirtle? There was blood in the streets! Completing cycles is a pretty satisfying for a player to see in a game, and a pretty frustrating thing to see not put in a game. People love symmetry, it's like a major part of game design. A cycle of Pokemon like a starter trio or a legendary trio being left unfulfilled is a frustrating affair, especially when it's as shoved in the player's face as Charizard in SWSH.

With that said...

The Hisuian starters are a giant glowing neon sign that they don't feel bound to cycle completion. Sure, they make their own cycle, but you do have to admit it feels a bit weird to 2/3rds of a starter trio left out in the cold. It feels a little less weird because PLA is a smaller scope game than a normal Pokemon adventure, but I can still see them going either way on including the remaining six Pokemon families in SV. Because of this, I'll be breaking my thoughs of what's probably in SV in two with this force having power and no power.


5) Just do some extra stuff too I guess? - Okay, some of this I just can't distill into something tangible well. Jirachi and the Gen 5 legendaries being in the game is pretty weird. I don't know why they're there, and I can't think of any ongoing events that would tie them to being a priority to being in the game. All I can do is speculate as to maybe there being some scrapped ideas or ease of implementation that let them slip in. Maybe the whole "Wishing Piece" thing made them want to tie it into Jirachi? It seems plausible given the SWSH bonus in BDSP is a Jirachi. Maybe that crowned tundra footprint thing for the musketeers was planned for the base game? Maybe doing the legwork for the solarizers' inclusion made implementing kyruem easy? Hell, maybe even like, the way the solarizers were programmed in Gen 7 you need Kyurem things in the game too not to break it lol? Pokemon is on a massive pile of tech debt so I wouldn't be surprised one little fiddling upends a bunch of stuff after Spinda got shafted in BDSP. Or hell, maybe they were just nostalgic for gen 5 or something.

It's way too open here and all I can do is baselessly speculate! The takeaway here though is murky. I don't think anything can be planned around this well at all. I just might expect some weird inclusions like "huh why are the legendary dogs in this game?" once SV is released.


What can we take away from all this? Well, if we assume these principles are things Gamefreak wants to stick to to keep players on board, we can infer what I think is a pretty reasonable list of things we'll see in SV. Using these principles, I am pretty confident that SV will allow us to import the pokemon from previous games, even if they're no in the Pokedex:

>>Pokemon Likely To Be In SV Base on SWSH Inaccessible Pokemon Trends<<

More Moderate Reading: (Principles 1-3 Apply, No 4)

:Grookey::Scorbunny::Sobble:The Galar Starter Trio Familiies
:Turtwig::Chimchar::Piplup:The Sinnoh Starter Trio Families
:Rowlet::Cyndaquil::Oshawott:The Hisuian Starter Trio Families
:Zacian:Zacian
:Zamazenta:Zamazenta
:calyrex-shadow::calyrex-ice:Calyrex + Steeds
:Dialga:Dialga
:Palkia:Palkia
:Arceus:Arceus
:Zarude:Zarude
:Manaphy:Manaphy (and :Phione:)
:Darkrai:Darkrai
:Shaymin:Shaymin

More Generous Reading (Principles 1-4 Apply)
:Grookey::Dialga::Arceus: All Pokemon in prior list
:Chikorita::Totodile::Snivy::Tepig::Litten::Popplio:The remaining Johto, Unova, and Alola Starter Families
:eternatus:Eternatus
:Urshifu:Urshifu

:giratina: Giratina
:Mew: Mew
:Jirachi: Jirachi



Let's elaborate a bit:

Keep Your Starters - Gen 8 had a big heap of starters to deal with, what a mess! It gets even worse with cycle completion, but we'll get to that later. Still, given what they did with SWSH, I feel confident all our first partner pals from the newer switch games will be tagging along for SV adventures.

Keep Your Reward - With three games, there are a lot of rewards to go through. Zacian, Zamazenta, Dialga, and Palkia are all totally analogous to keeping Solgaleo, Lunala, and Mewtwo as rewards from the Gen 7 games. Calyrex I feel is also on this same level as a big bad restricted legendary and your reward for completing SWSH and the DLC. Arceus, despite being a mythic, also fits this bill given he was central to the latest installment.

Keep Your Mythics - We have a big crop of Mythics to run with for Gen 8. Zarude's our one lone new Mythic who gets to stick around an extra gen for selling tickets. Manaphy, Shaymin, and Darkrai were all featured prominently as promotional Pokemon and fit the same bill Meltan and Mew did in the previous generation.

Altogether, this makes for 22 Pokemon, which is well under the 33 SWSH added as mostly inaccessible prior to Home, leaving plenty of wiggle room for extra surprise inclusions like SWSH's Gen 5 legendary stuff.

There are a few glaring omissions here I think are also very likely to get in, but a bit too reliant on cycle completion or some other factor to pin it to the more certain list.

Giratina - This is like the most borderline Pokemon for nearly getting on the rock solid list, but I've got just a tiny bit of doubt thanks to Necrozma. Part of me feels that Necrozma is operating less as completing a trio and more just on acting as a "keeping your reward" sort of thing for USUM. Still, I think having Giratina on is close to a near lock, just not as close as Dialga and Palkia.
Eternatus - I guess Zacian, Zamazeta, and Eternatus are a trio of sorts, but boy, they feel the most disconnected out of any trio of cover legend - cover legend - extra legend we've had of the lot. Eternatus is also on the wings of that cycle completion going for Giratina, but it feels far more likely to be excluded with how disconnected it is from the cover legendaries. If only Pokemon Gun had released with it on the cover...
Urshifu - I had Urshifu on the first list initially, but I talked myself out of it. I feel as if rewarding / incentivizing purchase of the SWSH expansion is going to be a driving force behind these likely post dex inclusions in SV, but Urshifu don't have to do a ton for that. Adding Naganadel for example, a Pokemon that explicitly requires USUM and would be a nice reward for purchasing that game in SWSH, wasn't included in the base SWSH roster. I think we'll get a little nod towards the DLC purchase, but I think Calyrex being the big bad imposing legendary is more likely. Still, Urshifu was on the cover for the DLC and the DLC box set, so I can see it cropping up easy. On that note, I feel the weight of Urshifu and Calyrex are way, way higher than the other featured Pokemon in the expansions, so I feel they're the only ones in contentions for being nearly certain postdex locks.
Mew and Jirachi - Mew and Jirachi were featured as mythical rewards for having save data on your console. I feel they're also extremely likely, especially given the popularity of Mew, but feel they're just a tad less steady than the Gen 4 mythics who do the same thing and also rewarded early purchases.
The remaining starters - This one is... weird. Part of my feels like PLA shows they're okay with sectioning a little group like this out. Part of me feels the Venusaur-Blastoise thing in SWSH makes them very likely, especially given PLA was just a far smaller game. Adding six whole extra pokemon families seems like a fair bit of extra work, especially given so much of this is going six years without things like Serperior available, but the extra symmetry feels like it matters enough to spur them into including the lot.


That's just about it! For the record though, I don't want this to come off as like a trend that gamefreak *has* to follow. Sometimes I think online discussion gets a bit mired in trends that might like fit the mold of what a dev has done, but not something they're held to for future developments (the discourse about things that were already spirits in SSBU not being fighter contenders rubbed me poorly). I'm in agreeance with a lot of AquaticPanic's stance on patterns. I want this to be less "what if this is a pattern to be paid off in this new game!?" and more "These indicate some tangible forces that boost player satisfaction and drive sales probably are being thought about and are still likely on the table."


Finally, to be clear, I also think a lot more Pokemon are almost assuredly in the game too, but this post is ungodly long enough. I think basically every new Pokemon and form in PLA is a shoe-in to be in SV. I'm also almost certain eternal fan favorites like Eevee, Mewtwo, and the Kanto starters won't miss the game. Those discussions are for another day! This however I feel is way more solid grounds for discussion and analysis and I felt was worth posting in its current state. I'm just operating off of that tiny bit of content that was mostly inaccessible at the start of SWSH's lifespan to see if we can extrapolate anything. Excited to see how others view these sorts of trends.


also I willed charizard x and cosmog and galar slowbro's typing into existance so im VERY right and should not be questioned on my speculation abilities nyeh
Where does Meltan and Melmetal lie?
 
Where does Meltan and Melmetal lie?
Wow, I really went on a big long explanation as to how Meltan was included and probably boosted sales of LGPE in that post, but forgot to actually include its graphic in the actual list of stuff included in SWSH 1.0. It's on there now, and it's a Mythic so it fits into that mold of mythic stuff I explained earlier. Keeping it keeps customers who played LGPE happy.

Great post sir, much better than usual senseless speculation I read around, but I would add one thing:
Assuming you got the idea right I would assume the genies will be also be in the game, amongst the "non interactables". For the same reason: one of the shiny new toys is Enamorous.
Remember how SwSh's 35 had the 4 Sword of Justice? I am not sure why they were there, I assume this was because they would be coming up later or were originally planning to do something else and it wasnt done, but either ways, they were indeed in the original 35. I can definitely see Tornadus, Thundurus, Landorus and Enamorous being either straight up present in the game, or present but unobtainable until home.

Tecnically, I do think every regional form / new pokemon introduced in Arceus will be for same reason, as well. We already got confirmation that Hisuian Zoroark is in, and I'd not be surprised if it'll get a dedicated shiny mystery gift (something something hisuian snow), though we do not know if it'll actually be catchable, or just "via transfer". But since I have a rough time seeing hisuian pokemon present in the wild, them being available as "transfer only" would make perfect sense, and Enamorous with her entourage would also fit this.
I agree that every Hisuian form is likely going to be in the game. That said, I didn't mention them in that particular post because I was trying to stay within the scope of what was included in the base SWSH roster and I feel their basis for inclusion wasn't very strong from those factors, but other factors. I was tempted to view Meltan and Melmetal's inclusion as "Let players use a new game piece in a proper Pokemon environment" as a factor to why they're included, but A) That's one Pokemon family I don't think represent a trend well and B) Their weight as mythic Pokemon fits in so much better with the other factors. I do feel the Hisuian stuff will be included Day 1 in SWSH though because using these new forms in PVP is a major driving force for sales this game, so much it was shown off in the reveal!

As for the other genies, this is where things get a little rockier. Gamefreak is aware that the genies just fuck shit up and are stupid ridiculous. They have been a considerable part of every single official Pokemon format they've been allowed in at best and at worst have majorly warped game balance around their abilities. Thundurus alone I am convinced is responsible for the Gen 6 paralysis changes and is likely a factor in the prankster and Thunder Wave changes we saw in Gen 7. Incineroar is behind a lot of those intimidate changes in Gen 8, but Landorus-T is right there with him. They are easily the single most influential and powerful non-restricted legendary trio ever. The only ones that comes close are the Tapus who aged considerably less well this gen and like the kanto birds off of Zapdos alone.

Putting something that powerful in at the start of the game seems like something they'd want to avoid. Landorus-T is going to but a heavy damper on like every single physical attacker in the game. Granted, Incineroar also dropped in base Switch and does lots of that with parting shot and fake out, but it has the wings of being a pokemon players were really attached to being a starter from the previous game. Landorus is just reviled.

There's also just the habit we've had since Gen 6 where it takes a good year for the power level of formats to ramp up to the point where something like Landorus-T is allowed. Gen 6, Gen 7, and Gen 8 all started off with smaller formats with very few legacy legendaries or mechanics around, then let players more in the deep end once the smaller formats had run their course. I would expect we're going to have a big legendarysplosion for whatever extra content comes in swsh later and then all those old dudes like the genies and birds and tapus and such will be back then.

That all said, with that principle of completing cycles I mentioned, a game with only one genie would feel kinda weird. All in all, I am half and half on the genies being in the base game, but a slightly less confident half and half than the other starters for the hisuian starters being around (so I guess like 40:60?). I don't have nearly as sturdy a basis for arguing this as I did the Pokemon in my earlier post, but I'm personally anticipating an orphaned Enamorus waiting on its brothers until whatever inevitable DLC drops in late 2023.
 
Something I noticed while absentmindedly checking the website.

View attachment 433336

This isn't new information, but I hadn't noticed that the header specifically uses the word "move" until now. To me, this sounds like it's describing the flavor of what I assume will be Sprigatito's signature move.
I wonder how this would factor into Sprigatito's supposed grass/dark typing. Apparently, there are some rumors going around that Sprigatito will become a grass/dark type, but based on this description, grass/fairy or grass/psychic makes a lot more sense. I wasn't really convinced by these rumors anyway, but this certainly doesn't help.
 
with the power of context clues
The 'Will Sprigatito Become Bipedal?' debate rages on! Does having a signature move based on the kneading motion of cats mean that it has to stay quadrupedal for the move to make sense? Or are GF going full-on furry bait and making a Pokemon that can literally massage you with its hand-paws while releasing scented oils?
I wonder how this would factor into Sprigatito's supposed grass/dark typing. Apparently, there are some rumors going around that Sprigatito will become a grass/dark type, but based on this description, grass/fairy or grass/psychic makes a lot more sense. I wasn't really convinced by these rumors anyway, but this certainly doesn't help.
i am bringing you jokes about how sprigagito can still have a "kneading" move and become bipedal and also evil
 
Pokémon fans: Will Sprigatito's final evolution be bipedal or not? The horror if it is! The relief if it isn't! The suspense is killing us!
Me: Don't care, more Pokémon.

I don't care what Sprigatito will evolve into, I'm still picking it as my starter. And I'm definitely not going to spoil myself on the starter evolutions once they are leaked. I want to be surprised by Sprigatito's final evolution, just like when I first saw Cinderace in Sword.
 
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NealIRC

Banned deucer.
You know what I'm hoping they make the bst of the final Grass starter evo be greater than the other 2. Almost every gen where they're not tied, they make the fire starter bst above the rest, 534. Gen 3 was the only gen where the water starter outclassed the other 2. Though technically, the only time Grass outclassed the other was Gen 1, because Charizard and Blastoise were both 510, Venusaur still 525.

The last 2 gens they were all equally tied at 530, but in Gen 6 only Delphox was 534. I hope they do something more creative and not make them all 530.

Going with Khu's hints that Sprigatito's final evo is a Grass/Dark bipedal cat, I'm so hyped for that. It would have a 4x weakness to Bug, and yet Inteleon and Greninja could both learn U-turn so having Quaxly know that could be an imbalance. But we already know this had happened before, Empoleon could learn Ice Beam against Torterra, and I believe, even OHKO it. Hopefully the cat will be faster than the fighting duck. And I wouldn't mind it if they made the Fire croc with the lowest bst like 525.
 
Though technically, the only time Grass outclassed the other was Gen 1, because Charizard and Blastoise were both 510, Venusaur still 525.
No? In gen 1 all the starters had 425 then gained their current BSTs from the Special Split.
  • Charizard's Special was 85 and became its Sp. Def.
  • Blastoise's Special was 85 and became its Sp. Atk.
  • Venusaur, meanwhile, just got its Special of 100 turned into both stats
Basically the stats are the way they are because they wanted Charizard to be stronger and Blastoise to be tankier, but they wanted to Venusaur to be the balanced one, but they also wanted at least one of the Special stats to match the Gen 1 Special.

I can't explain why Blastoise doesn't have 4 more Sp. Def though...
 

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