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SPL 7: UU Discussion Thread
- Thread starter Hogg
- Start date
Probably because my post was a serious analyses of the game. Maybe a bit abrasive, but it's not like I'm pulling shit out of my ass to defend kokoloko
You are calling a former tier leader a liar, who was "shitting his pants" at the prospect of losing a Pokemon game. You really can't complain about people giving you shit. You want to blame the loss on an irrelevant miss, so I'm telling you why you actually lost that game. Additionally, this isn't the first time you do something like this and I know this because I was the "target" of one of your "I lost a tour game and now am upset".
"You don't know my sets" "You are a tier leader, so whatever you say will be right"
I'm a person who has been playing Pokemon competitively for years, with more SPL experience and UU knowledge than most, and I have access to a damage calculator and the replay of the game. I don't need to be spoonfed information to know almost every single one of your sets and what was the best way of winning that game. I have even used Aero, Sableye and Florges in most of my teams this year, that's why I know the damage off the top of my head and didn't need to double check anything while being on my phone.
Alright you were running TONS speed on Sableye. Hydreigon showed it didn't have LO when it killed Chestnaught. So
252 SpA Draco Plate Hydreigon Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 168+ SpD Sableye: 256-303 (84.2 - 99.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
Were you running significantly more than 88 speed on Sableye? even if you did, which is a bit unlikely, the chances of missing WoW are much bigger than the chances of dying to Draco, unless you are running practically no useful amount of investment.
"Him damaging Chest with Swampert is irrelevant"? If the only Pokemon in his team that loses to Chestnaught is Swampert (his only aero switch in), which would be the case if he was Power Herb Gyarados, why would he stay in while taking Rocky Helmet damage?
"I was bulky aero, so I didn't need to put Hydra in the KO range" Slow ass Aero issues aside, do you realize this is an even worse choke than what I was expecting? Hydreigon can't beat Sableye or Aero without absurd amount of luck, and you went to the Florges that let Gyrados setup. Even if you were certain it wasn't Lum Gyarados, you made the least optimal move by far.
"You took the chance of Sub" Gyarados needs to dodge multiple Stone Edge to setup sub + DD on Aero, beat Haze Tentacruel (if it isn't Haze, you pretty much auto lose to CM Suicune with Rest), and dodge Will-O-Wisp. How did that sweep you if you went to anything not called Florges?
But whatever. Keep saying koko is a liar and that I don't know what I am talking about.
The level of salt in this room is too damn high.
aim v Hikari happening now: http://smogtours.psim.us/battle-uu-133231
EDIT: http://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-uu-133231
Cool game overall. aim looked to have a strong matchup advantage from team preview, but some luck on Hikari's part put the advantage back onto his side of the court, and then a lot of smart playing by both sides kept the late-game surprisingly competitive as aim tried to pull things back together.
EDIT: http://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-uu-133231
Cool game overall. aim looked to have a strong matchup advantage from team preview, but some luck on Hikari's part put the advantage back onto his side of the court, and then a lot of smart playing by both sides kept the late-game surprisingly competitive as aim tried to pull things back together.
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[14:41:01] +CrashinBoomBang: u ever seen a mon with 2 recovery moves
[14:41:03] +CrashinBoomBang: run out of both
[14:41:03] +CrashinBoomBang: run out of both
the game is not really worth watching
Shitty matchup. Hax gave me good chances of winning. Played stupidly safe (the game was over with a extrasensory crit and I had no way of preventing that, so I wasn't particularly focused on avoiding crits) and pp stalled for 100+ turns.
Didn't prepare properly and I didn't have access to my comp with teams, but had to play because we agreed to play today because he couldn't play any on the weekend. I was counting on my old teams and without them I was forced to make a 5 min team made from 0. My fault for procrastinating till last minute
Shitty matchup. Hax gave me good chances of winning. Played stupidly safe (the game was over with a extrasensory crit and I had no way of preventing that, so I wasn't particularly focused on avoiding crits) and pp stalled for 100+ turns.
Didn't prepare properly and I didn't have access to my comp with teams, but had to play because we agreed to play today because he couldn't play any on the weekend. I was counting on my old teams and without them I was forced to make a 5 min team made from 0. My fault for procrastinating till last minute
Softboiled + Wish Blissey and Chansey were things in DPP
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Hi I just lost to teal6-0. Replay: http://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-uu-133560
Also looks like HANTSUKI is getting subbed in over bugzy for dodmen's game.
Also looks like HANTSUKI is getting subbed in over bugzy for dodmen's game.
Losing absol turn 2 meant that hogg had basically nothing for teal's cresselia, especially considering it was one of his only switchins to mega sceptile. Missing a stun spore on cress was unfortuate but I'm not sure how much it mattered in the end unless hogg planned to flinch it down with coba.
Cobalion had X-Scissor to lure bulky Psychics. Unfortunately I couldn't risk Salamence or Whimsicott to a potential Ice Beam, as then I'd lose to Entei or Sceptile respectively. I figured my best bet was to get damage off, Knock Off any Shuca/Chople and put it in KO range for the rest of my team (or hopefully survive an over-predicted Ice Beam and 2HKO).
EDIT: I definitely think there were a couple of instances where I could have played better - in particular, letting Cobalion die later on when I could have sacked Mence, not Encoring Cresselia into Moonblast late-game, and not going for the full para when it was Entei versus Cloyster. That said, I don't really see any way those early turns could have played out differently without putting me in a worse situation. I could have tried to lead Cobalion, but I figured there was at least a decent chance his Empoleon was packing Chople, and Close Combat is a roll depending on Empoleon's spread... and I really did NOT want to lose Cobalion early game.
EDIT: I definitely think there were a couple of instances where I could have played better - in particular, letting Cobalion die later on when I could have sacked Mence, not Encoring Cresselia into Moonblast late-game, and not going for the full para when it was Entei versus Cloyster. That said, I don't really see any way those early turns could have played out differently without putting me in a worse situation. I could have tried to lead Cobalion, but I figured there was at least a decent chance his Empoleon was packing Chople, and Close Combat is a roll depending on Empoleon's spread... and I really did NOT want to lose Cobalion early game.
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There is a lot of thought going into those first two turns. First off if I'm you, Hogg, I'm thinking, "Wow, teal6's knock off switch in is a Heracross and he has two psychic types." My initial thought would to preserve this so I wouldn't get swept by Alakazam or Cresselia. After some more thought, you see that Cloyster can sweep under the right conditions too and the sash gives you some security vs Zam. One of those conditions for a Cloyster sweep is a weakened Empoleon. So not only is the damage attractive on Empoleon, but teal6 could also predict you to switch to a water resist and click ice beam or get really cheeky and set up stealth rocks.
If I'm teal6, I'm thinking that if this sets up plus 2, I lose a pokemon and a half plus momentum. The first turn protect kinda scares me because an absol with protect could very well be adamant. Then this calc comes to my head: 252+ Atk Mega Absol Superpower vs. 248 HP / 8 Def Empoleon: 352-416 (94.8 - 112.1%) -- 68.8% chance to OHKO. If you get the super power prediction wrong which is highly unlikley they will go for adamant superpower, you suffer some major consequences late game. I have to go for scald here because I really have no switches. The ice beam play is cool but is far riskier than the scald play.
Hogg you feared chople which I find interesting. Did you end up having superpower? Shuca makes a lot of sense for teal's team now that I think about it. The Cresselia had moonblast over ice beam. You knew coming in that you had a tiny Empoleon weakness hence EQ on Salamence. Maybe over fireblast or defog? I assume defog or roost because you want to lure Forretress for cloyster and cobe (well I guess cobe doesnt mind it too much and cloyster is probably hydro). You could be that dodmen set idk. What was your mindset after turn two? Great game btw. GG to both.
Absol had Fire Blast as its fourth move, not Superpower (because yeah, luring Esca/Forry was pretty important for the team). And teal6 has used Chople Empoleon quite a bit recently. I figured from his team make-up that he was running either Chople or Shuca, but didn't want to risk it with a Cobalion lead, especially as once again it's a roll even if he's not running Chople unless he's using a crazy amount of Speed.
There was a 30% chance of basically getting rid of Absol should I hit it with Scald t1 and I knew that there was literally no chance on earth he was Adamant Superpower, besides Hogg has seen all of my SPL teams thus far and knows that I have and will use Chople Empoleon so that's a ludicrous risk to take if he does have it. I had a Scarf Heracross in the back where I could play mindgames with his switch ins + a Mega Sceptile that wouldn't die to sucker and I didn't care about any damage on it because there was nothing that it was taking a single hit from anyway.
Hogg encoring me into Moonblast might have been a good idea toward the end, but it would've changed how I played it. You can't bring Cloyster in on a Moonblast and Shell Smash on me without dying, so you'd have to keep attacking with Whims until you died. I could switch out Cress so long as I was above a reasonable roll from +2 icicle spear, and it essentially comes down to the same thing ("do I hit through para and avoid getting crit a billion times from spear"). There's more reasoning here that I initially wrote but idk if it was salient enough to keep, if anyone's interested just PM me or whatever.
Had the above scenario played out like I said, Giga + Espeed won. The way it played out I figured I ended up having a 25% chance of winning, just the para roll.
Hogg encoring me into Moonblast might have been a good idea toward the end, but it would've changed how I played it. You can't bring Cloyster in on a Moonblast and Shell Smash on me without dying, so you'd have to keep attacking with Whims until you died. I could switch out Cress so long as I was above a reasonable roll from +2 icicle spear, and it essentially comes down to the same thing ("do I hit through para and avoid getting crit a billion times from spear"). There's more reasoning here that I initially wrote but idk if it was salient enough to keep, if anyone's interested just PM me or whatever.
Had the above scenario played out like I said, Giga + Espeed won. The way it played out I figured I ended up having a 25% chance of winning, just the para roll.
Icey Tea vs xMarth happening now: http://smogtours.psim.us/battle-uu-133908
dod vs HANTSUKI: http://smogtours.psim.us/battle-uu-133940
REPLAY: http://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-uu-133940
HANTSUKI wins by a hair O.O
REPLAY: http://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-uu-133940
HANTSUKI wins by a hair O.O
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Ah another webs Hoopa team! I think dodmen brought this team (or a team like it) in BOTW. I'm going to discuss turn 17 and the possible outcomes.
Dodmen goes for ice shard on the Cobalion: ~95% chance to win
Dodmen goes for ice shard on the Sharpedo: ~95% to beat Sharp and 50% to win speed tie with Cobe
Dodmen goes for Earthquake on the Cobalion: 50% to win speed tie with Cobe and ~95% to beat Sharp
Dodmen goes for Earthquake on the Sharpedo: 100% chance to win
HANTSUKI goes for iron head on the (Ice Shard) Mamoswine: ~5% to win
HANTSUKI goes for iron head on the (Earthquake) Mamoswine: 50% to win speed tie and ~5% to win with Sharpedo
HANTSUKI switches to Sharpedo on the ice shard: ~5% to beat Cobalion and 50% to win speed tie
HANTSUKI switches to Sharpedo on the Earthquake: 0% to win
1. Best Chance of winning
2. Worst chance of winning
3. Other Chances
Sharpedo can beat Cobalion 1 on 1 with two flinches in a row which is roughly around 5%. This does not include crit chance.
Now I'm doing all of this because it is fun, but secondly because I do think going for ice shard on the Cobalion was not the optimal play. It is very well an attractive play because if Cobalion stays in, dodmen has ~90% chance of winning. The consequence of dodmen going for EQ as the Cobalion went for Iron head is the same one that the game ended up to be anyway. The only difference is that dodmen created the speed tie win instead of HANTSUKI. If cobalion stays in on the obvious ice shard, HANTSUKI should be prepared to lose. That ~10% is very slim.
If you look at dodmen's chances of winning, they are all higher than HANTSUKI's or about the same. HANTSUKI's has to make his chances greater I feel, by switching. Dodmen I am sure you thought about this and thought he would go for iron head predicting your eq, but even if he did, you still had a great chance of winning. A lesser chance, but a great one. It was a 50/50 to avoid a speed tie win. I found it interesting to talk about so I thought I might share. Was a really good game. Kinda sad RNG determined the winner but that's what HANTSUKI was going for.
Dodmen goes for ice shard on the Cobalion: ~95% chance to win
Dodmen goes for ice shard on the Sharpedo: ~95% to beat Sharp and 50% to win speed tie with Cobe
Dodmen goes for Earthquake on the Cobalion: 50% to win speed tie with Cobe and ~95% to beat Sharp
Dodmen goes for Earthquake on the Sharpedo: 100% chance to win
HANTSUKI goes for iron head on the (Ice Shard) Mamoswine: ~5% to win
HANTSUKI goes for iron head on the (Earthquake) Mamoswine: 50% to win speed tie and ~5% to win with Sharpedo
HANTSUKI switches to Sharpedo on the ice shard: ~5% to beat Cobalion and 50% to win speed tie
HANTSUKI switches to Sharpedo on the Earthquake: 0% to win
1. Best Chance of winning
2. Worst chance of winning
3. Other Chances
Sharpedo can beat Cobalion 1 on 1 with two flinches in a row which is roughly around 5%. This does not include crit chance.
Now I'm doing all of this because it is fun, but secondly because I do think going for ice shard on the Cobalion was not the optimal play. It is very well an attractive play because if Cobalion stays in, dodmen has ~90% chance of winning. The consequence of dodmen going for EQ as the Cobalion went for Iron head is the same one that the game ended up to be anyway. The only difference is that dodmen created the speed tie win instead of HANTSUKI. If cobalion stays in on the obvious ice shard, HANTSUKI should be prepared to lose. That ~10% is very slim.
If you look at dodmen's chances of winning, they are all higher than HANTSUKI's or about the same. HANTSUKI's has to make his chances greater I feel, by switching. Dodmen I am sure you thought about this and thought he would go for iron head predicting your eq, but even if he did, you still had a great chance of winning. A lesser chance, but a great one. It was a 50/50 to avoid a speed tie win. I found it interesting to talk about so I thought I might share. Was a really good game. Kinda sad RNG determined the winner but that's what HANTSUKI was going for.
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Here are the Week 7 matchups
xMarth vs kokoloko
teal6 vs Hikari
ZoroDark vs Calloflochie
Hairy Toenail vs dodmen
Christo. vs Hogg
Will post thoughts in a bit
xMarth vs kokoloko
teal6 vs Hikari
ZoroDark vs Calloflochie
Hairy Toenail vs dodmen
Christo. vs Hogg
Will post thoughts in a bit
xMarth vs Kokoloko - Both have had rather good seasons despite being projected to be in the bottom 50% of players in the power rankings. It appears to be a fairly even match, but I'm giving koko the edge here because he's been around forever, but I wouldn't be surprised if xMarth took the win.
teal6 vs Hikari - I really hope that this game plays out well because this is like the most hype game of the century. Like I really couldn't call this game or choose someone I would want to win, because as much as I want teal6 to keep his streak going, I want Hikari to break the streak, so it goes both ways.
ZoroDark vs Calloflochie - I'm gonna give it to Calloflochie here because he's played UU the entire SPL and has a good amount of experience otherwise.
Hairy Toenail vs dodmen - dodmen has had a decent SPL thus far and is a good player, so I think I'll give him the win, especially because Hairy Toenail hasn't played an SPL game before, so nerves might get to him.
Christo. vs Hogg - fun matchup :)
teal6 vs Hikari - I really hope that this game plays out well because this is like the most hype game of the century. Like I really couldn't call this game or choose someone I would want to win, because as much as I want teal6 to keep his streak going, I want Hikari to break the streak, so it goes both ways.
ZoroDark vs Calloflochie - I'm gonna give it to Calloflochie here because he's played UU the entire SPL and has a good amount of experience otherwise.
Hairy Toenail vs dodmen - dodmen has had a decent SPL thus far and is a good player, so I think I'll give him the win, especially because Hairy Toenail hasn't played an SPL game before, so nerves might get to him.
Christo. vs Hogg - fun matchup :)