MLB thread

[aamto]

And Beckett can't pitch with his beer and chicken hangovers. OH SNAP, I CAN DO IT TOO!!!

Actually, i've seen pictures of Cabby. He's slimmed down quite a bit. He wasn't that bad when he was a 3B, we'll see. He seems quite dedicated to the task.

Cabrera last played 3B when he was 180 pounds. he's now 240. it won't work.

his last 3 years' UZR at 3B: -36.8 (2008), -4.4 (2007), -3.4 (2006).

the first one is particularly relevant, as that's his first year as a Tiger. no one is -37 runs bad but...Cabrera was not good then and he's only gotten heavier since.

 

[ButteredToast]

Phillies sign Juan Pierre, Giants get Ryan Theriot, and Astros get former All Star Zach Duke. Yankees are making a move for Raul Ibanez while the Bosox and Texas are going after Oswalt and Edwin Jackson.

Been a busy day for late January... Hard to believe that P&C reports in about three weeks. :D

 

[Stallion]

Ewwww we better not be chasing Oswalt, at this stage in his career I want nothing to do with him. Bring us Clayton Kershaw (or the aforementioned Cole Hamels), I just remembered that both him and his wife are from Texas so maybe if the Dodgers struggle again and they start to feel homesick that promises of a return home could lure them out after this season *hint hint*. Gotta love my wishful thinking, but hey haha.

 

[J-man]

Cabrera last played 3B when he was 180 pounds. he's now 240. it won't work.

his last 3 years' UZR at 3B: -36.8 (2008), -4.4 (2007), -3.4 (2006).

the first one is particularly relevant, as that's his first year as a Tiger. no one is -37 runs bad but...Cabrera was not good then and he's only gotten heavier since.

I don't know... Does this look like 240 lbs to you?

In any case, his offense will always overshadow his defense. I think he was the worst 1st baseman defensively last year? I never noticed. He was worth triple the runs of any 3B last year. Yeah, I'm not sure i'll notice that much...

 

[jrrrrrrr]

According to Buster Olney's twitter, Oswalt is likely to sign with the Cardinals. In my experience he is very hit or miss but fsr I was reading a bunch of his stuff today and liked it.

His top 5 AL teams:
1) Rays
2) Yankees
3) Rangers
4) Tigers
5) Angels

Agree? Disagree?

No Red Sox makes me a sad panda but I can see why they aren't there. Angels are overhyped IMO and will struggle to even make the playoffs. Rays are super overhyped and their rotation definitely peaked last year with no offense to speak of...

My list looks similar to that but not for the reasons he gave.

 

[aamto]

I don't know... Does this look like 240 lbs to you?

In any case, his offense will always overshadow his defense. I think he was the worst 1st baseman defensively last year? I never noticed. He was worth triple the runs of any 3B last year. Yeah, I'm not sure i'll notice that much...

he's a bad 1B but not woeful. Fielder is actually worse. the thing with offense > defense is that the new defensive alignment is going to give back so many runs that the team won't benefit as much from Fielder's addition as you think.

you're adding an even worse fielding 1B (who happens to be the worst baserunner in baseball), adding (likely) the worst fielding 3B in baseball, and still keeping scrubs at DH. the offense will be fun to watch, i guess. but when you see every groundball sneaking through the infield, you'll be shaking your head!

 

[ButteredToast]

Ewwww we better not be chasing Oswalt, at this stage in his career I want nothing to do with him. Bring us Clayton Kershaw (or the aforementioned Cole Hamels), I just remembered that both him and his wife are from Texas so maybe if the Dodgers struggle again and they start to feel homesick that promises of a return home could lure them out after this season *hint hint*. Gotta love my wishful thinking, but hey haha.

Clayshaw? You'd be lucky to get Chad Billingsley and his macho ERA. What prospects do you have that are worth while enough to land a 24 yo Cy Young award winner with three years of team control?

The problem with Texas not being a favorite for Oswalt is that their rotation is pretty set with Lewis, Holland, Darvish, Harrison, and Feliz (I think Ogando is back in the pen...) Unless the Rangers want to trade one of their guys or put post season whipping-boy Neftali Feliz back as closer and move Nathan into set up, I don't see them getting Oswalt. The last thing they need is another four guy in a rotation filled with three’s and four’s.

The Astros are emerging as a contender for Oswalt for some reason. Maybe to flip him at the trade deadline, but then again, they have about 3 other starters they could do that with too...

Cards are the favorite in my eyes, but they are going to need to trade Jake Westbrook. Cleveland may take a flyer on Westbrook to replace "The Artist Formally Known As Fausto Carmona." If they can't find room, I'd hope Oswalt falls to the Red Sox for the rumored $5 million one year deal with an option for 2013...

I don't know... Does this look like 240 lbs to you?

That's OBVIOUSLY photo shopped. If that was really him, there would be a tall one in his hands. All I see is a gallon of water. Or is it vodka? Maybe it is him...

According to Buster Olney's twitter, Oswalt is likely to sign with the Cardinals. In my experience he is very hit or miss but fsr I was reading a bunch of his stuff today and liked it.

His top 5 AL teams:
1) Rays
2) Yankees
3) Rangers
4) Tigers
5) Angels

Agree? Disagree?

No Red Sox makes me a sad panda but I can see why they aren't there. Angels are overhyped IMO and will struggle to even make the playoffs. Rays are super overhyped and their rotation definitely peaked last year with no offense to speak of...

My list looks similar to that but not for the reasons he gave.

What is that list even over? Who will sign Oswalt or who is the best team right now in the American League? I'm thinking based on your response that it's who is the best in the American League, so I will go with that I guess...

The teams I see making the playoffs go as follows, with the Angles being the best. You can't come close to touching their rotation of Weaver, Wilson, Harren, Santana, Williams. I don't even give a shit about Albert right now. I don't think anyone can even come close to beating this rotation.

East: Red Sox
Central: Indians
West: Angles
WC #1: Yankees
WC #2: Rangers

I have the Indians over the Tigers just because I consider the Indians to have a great supporting staff than the Tigers. The Indians have a great lineup if Sizemore can somehow get healthy, and the tribe has made some great moves. I would say that they have one of the best bullbens in all of baseball right now, and a very good one-two punch in Ubaldo and Masterson. They can explode and be sneaky this year. I can't bet against them right now.

With the Red Sox trading away Scutaro, I now consider us to be tied with the Yankees in the East. The Rays are too soft in the line up department and the bullpen to play ball in the East. They will do good, just not good enough to make the playoffs, which is sad because they would if they were in the Central.

 

[J-man]

he's a bad 1B but not woeful. Fielder is actually worse. the thing with offense > defense is that the new defensive alignment is going to give back so many runs that the team won't benefit as much from Fielder's addition as you think.

you're adding an even worse fielding 1B (who happens to be the worst baserunner in baseball), adding (likely) the worst fielding 3B in baseball, and still keeping scrubs at DH. the offense will be fun to watch, i guess. but when you see every groundball sneaking through the infield, you'll be shaking your head!

For all the talk of how the Tigers had the worst infield defense, we were five bullpen screw ups from homefield advantage in the playoffs with the first seed in the AL barring the WS. Cabby made Vmart great. I'll be shocked if Prince doesn't see an increase in OBP and go above .300 in BA for the first time. Not sure about BABIP... Never looked that up.

@Butteredtoast
Quit trolling. I know you hate the Tigers, but it makes me sick that you'd joke around about Cabrera like that.
Also... Masterson-Jimenez? LOL. Have you heard of Justin Verlander and Doug Fister? Tigers have the best Pitching staff in the AL Central. Our bullpen is much, MUCH better. Oh yeah, people will also be introduced to either Jacob Turner or Drew Smyly.

 

[ButteredToast]

@Butteredtoast
Quit trolling. I know you hate the Tigers, but it makes me sick that you'd joke around about Cabrera like that.
Also... Masterson-Jimenez? LOL. Have you heard of Justin Verlander and Doug Fister? Tigers have the best Pitching staff in the AL Central. Our bullpen is much, MUCH better. Oh yeah, people will also be introduced to either Jacob Turner or Drew Smyly.

First of all, I'm not trolling. The Indians have a great team, and if anyone watched them in the first half last year they would have seen that. They have guys who are sneaky and off the radar like Justin Masterson, Asdrubal Cabrera, Shin-Soo Choo, Chris Perez, Joe Smith, Jason Kipnis, Santana...


Verlander is better than Jimenez, I'll give you that. I don't think Verlander is going to quite replicate the numbers he had last year, but he will still be one of the best guys in the American League. I think Ubaldo will also revert more to his career numbers than what he did last year. You guys though lose in the 2-5 spots. I'd consider Justin Masterson better than Doug Fister to be about the same margin that I'd consider Ubaldo to be worse than Verlander. You then have to look at Fausto, Lowe and one of the many options for the 5 spot verses Porcello, Ol' Two Eyes, and Phil Coke. I'd give the Indians the advantage hands down on paper. The Indians also have one of the more complete bullpens in the entire league. They have a great young and consistant closer in Perez, a phenominal setup man in Smith, left hander specilists, a good long man, hard throwers, side armers, the entire works. Shit, all they don't have is a tribal man with war paint who does 360 flips and then throws the ball 102 MPH.


And the Indians offense is only going to get better. All these guys are high ceiling prospects that could all be all stars. Kipnis is a flat out superstar when I saw him play. Chisonhall is a great defensive 3B guy. LaPorta has had points when he single handly carried the team. Santana is becoming a great offinsive catcher taking the mold of V-Mart. He's also learning to call a good game too.

If Grady and Choo can overcome their injuries and get back to their career numbers, you have very solid #3 and #4 guys. As you saw from last year that this team can find a way so score runs when they need it the most, and that was with all the injuries and suspect pitching. They are a sneaky team that has made a bunch of low risk high reward moves. They are younger, faster, more motivated, and better at D then the Tigers. It's not a joke to give them a chance in the Central.

 

[moi]

I don't know enough specifics on either of the teams hitters to give full lineup comparisons, but I'm going to run through some disagreements I have with the pitching section of the post.

Verlander is better than Jimenez, I'll give you that. I don't think Verlander is going to quite replicate the numbers he had last year, but he will still be one of the best guys in the American League. I think Ubaldo will also revert more to his career numbers than what he did last year. You guys though lose in the 2-5 spots. I'd consider Justin Masterson better than Doug Fister to be about the same margin that I'd consider Ubaldo to be worse than Verlander.

Essentially, your argument in the comparison of the top two pitchers is their expected regression towards their mean. That's a good background for this argument, because it's pretty obvious that Verlander got lucky and Jimenez unlucky. However, the variation isn't enough for me to agree with the statement bolded. Justin Verlander is a 2.8x-2.9x pitcher with no luck. He strikes out batters at a clip of just under 9K/9, and walks batters at a pace of just over 2BB/9, generates a good percentage of ground balls and doesn't give up too many home runs. His value is increased even further due to his ability to eat a lot of innings. The best bullpen you can ever have is long lasting reliable starting pitching.

On the other hand Jiminez is more like a 3.3x-3.4x, hampered by a pretty large increase in his BB/9 relative to Verlander. Until he improves his control, he'll never be a 3.00 ERA pitcher.

With that being said, that's why I can never agree that Masterson has that type of edge over Fister. Fister and Masterson both pitched nearly identical innings, Masterson posting a slightly higher ground ball and K%, but Fister had a lower BB%. Fister doesn't walk anyone, I didn't even realise how good his BB/9 is until looking (1.69), compared to Masterson's career tick 2.90. Any sort of age development theory can work both ways. They've both got less than 700 IP in the league each and Fister is only one year older than Masterson. I'm not trying to take anyway away from Masterson, but his ceiling is exaggerated, and that's a statement I'll stand by until there's some sort of miraculous development.

I had a couple more things to say but I don't have time to write out well constructed things so I'll just mention that Chris Perez is overrated due to his K/BB rate for a reliever (he doesn't strike out anyone) and I'd rather take an older Valverde to him. I may edit this post but no timeee.

 

[ButteredToast]

Indials picked up AAA IL MVP cornerman Russ Canzler from the Rays today. Again, a sneaky under the radar signing for the Tribe. Mark my words, the will contend.

 

[jrrrrrrr]

http://www.barstoolsports.com/bosto...alling-for-his-fake-youtube-trick-shot-video/

Well this explains Carl Crawford, John Lackey, Daisuke Mastuzaka, J.D. Drew, Daniel Bard, Erik Bedard, etc...

 

[ButteredToast]

Nationals agree to terms with Edwin Jackson today for one year, $8-$12 million. To make room, John Lannan is now on the trade block and it looks like he is on the cheap.

Guess the Nats really want to eat that wonton soup with the Marlins, Phillies, and Braves this year...

Edit: The Tribe signed Casey Kotchman to a deal worth $3 million to play first base.

 

[moi]

Are we going to run fantasy again for this this year? We seemed to have at least 6-7 of us who were pretty good at checking last year, I think Biggie, bwebber, jackal, myself, aamto, Stallion, pookar? Would any of the new faces wanna join? It'd be nice to get some things organised along those lines.

 

[ButteredToast]

Are we going to run fantasy again for this this year? We seemed to have at least 6-7 of us who were pretty good at checking last year, I think Biggie, bwebber, jackal, myself, aamto, Stallion, pookar? Would any of the new faces wanna join? It'd be nice to get some things organised along those lines.

I'd love to play if my old computer can support the software.

 

[drcossack]

Are we going to run fantasy again for this this year? We seemed to have at least 6-7 of us who were pretty good at checking last year, I think Biggie, bwebber, jackal, myself, aamto, Stallion, pookar? Would any of the new faces wanna join? It'd be nice to get some things organised along those lines.

I'd be up for doing it again.

 

[Stallion]

I'm game to play again!

 

[aamto]

i'll rock but only if you niggas actually check teams and stuff.

 

[ButteredToast]

Is the standard here draft or auction?

 

[moi]

We ran auction last year, and that'd be good. I don't think we have enough proper for keepers, and it'd be nice to set up the stats earlier.

 

[biggie]

I'm definitely in this. Either or works for me.

 

[ButteredToast]

We only have 10 days until pitchers and catchers report!

 

[orbpom123]

We only have 10 days until pitchers and catchers report!

Indeed, this offseason went surprisingly fast.

 

[ButteredToast]

Yeah, my boy Jon Lester is already reported to be at camp. Glad to see he is taking some responsibility for the Beer, Chicken, and Video Games Summit that was held last September. Maybe this early start will help Lester get out of his historic April slump...

But hey, if Oil Can Boyd used cocaine before 2/3 of his starts for his entire career, then I guess things could have been worse...

Oh yeah, Happy Truck Day!

 

[ButteredToast]

Oakland signed Cuban outfielder Yoenis Cespedes to a $36MM/4yr contract today. Looks like a big risk for a guy who is pretty much an unproven Willy Mo Pena. Thoughts anyone?